SPC AC 190533
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 PM CST THU NOV 18 2004
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE CRP 10 ENE COT
   35 NE JCT 50 WSW TYR 10 SSE SHV 30 W HEZ 40 S GPT.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AMPLIFICATION IN THE NORTHERN
   BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC...IS
   UNDERWAY.  AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST A
   POSITIVELY TILTED LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE/DEEPEN FROM
   THE PACIFIC COAST STATES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
   
   ...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
   SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC
   BROADER SCALE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S...INCLUDING
   NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM NOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES.  THIS FEATURE IS
   PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND
   WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH
   PLAINS.
   
   TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
   PANHANDLE REGION COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  DESPITE LACK OF RETURN FLOW OF
   MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO... MID 50S DEW POINTS NOW IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS SUFFICIENT FOR  THE EVOLUTION OF A
   CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFYING AND ACCELERATING  OUT OF THE
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLIER IN
   THE DAY...SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL REGIME IN ITS WAKE IS EXPECTED TO
   INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION.
   
   ...WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...
   ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COOLING/DRYING...IN WAKE OF SOUTHERN BRANCH
   IMPULSE NOW LIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...HAS
   STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...MODELS
   SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT INCREASES INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
   70S APPEARS POSSIBLE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY.  SUBSEQUENT
   STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE WESTERN
   GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTAL
   AREAS WILL OCCUR BY TONIGHT...ADVECTING MOISTURE INLAND...AND
   SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   MID-LEVEL INHIBITION MAY BE SLOW  TO WEAKEN...BUT MODELS SUGGEST
   UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT ALONG TEXAS
   COASTAL AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COUPLED HIGH LEVEL JETS LATE THIS
   EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
   INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD AND DEEPENING
   CONVECTION...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY.  
   
   THOUGH NOT STRONG...SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MARGINALLY
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE AT OR ABOVE 1000
   J/KG.  HOWEVER...AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS SURFACE-BASED
   INVERSION LAYER SHOULD MINIMIZE TORNADO/SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT
   INLAND OF IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.  WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH
   WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY WILL PRECLUDE RISK OF LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 11/19/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z