SPC AC 230605
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1205 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
   PSX 20 W VCT 25 NE BWD MWL 40 SW DUA 40 ENE PRX 30 S ELD 25 NW HEZ
   25 ESE HEZ 30 S MCB 25 SSE HUM.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
   CRP 40 NE COT 45 NNW SAT 35 W BWD 20 ENE LBB 20 NE PVW 35 E CSM 50
   SW TUL 20 ENE FSM 60 ENE PBF 35 W CBM 30 SW 0A8 40 NNE CEW 10 SE
   PFN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE DMN 15 N TCS 15
   WNW ONM ABQ 20 NNE LVS 25 NE CAO 15 N LBL 15 WNW ICT 20 S SZL 20 WNW
   SLO 30 S BMG 45 NNW LEX 30 W BLF 10 WNW LYH 15 NW ORF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CRE 55 S CAE 50
   S AGS 60 N AYS 10 N VLD 35 SE TLH.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...A SMALL
   PART OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA....AND A SMALL PART
   OF SOUTHWEST MS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH...
   
   WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...
   AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX....MUCH OF LA...AND SWRN MS. MORE SCATTERED
   SEVERE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES FROM PARTS OF NRN TX AND SRN OK TO AR...MUCH OF MS AND A
   PORTION OF SWRN AL.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED 85-90KT MID LEVEL WIND
   MAX WILL ACCELERATE ENEWD FROM WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON TO THE MS
   VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. VERY PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL
   DIVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN PLAINS AND NWRN GULF COAST WHERE
   A COMBINATION OF MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AND MARITIME TROPICAL
   AIR MASSES WILL YIELD POCKETS OF STRONG INSTABILITY.
   
   IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
   FORM OVER NRN TX LATER TODAY AND TRACK TO NRN AR BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT GULF COAST STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
   DELINEATING NRN EDGE OF TRUE TROPICAL MARITIME AIR WILL PROBABLY
   REMAIN ALIGNED WITH INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYER WSWLY FLOW JUST INLAND
   FROM THE NWRN GULF COAST...FROM VCT TO HOU TO LCH. EVENTUALLY THE
   FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD AND INLAND ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
   OVER THE OZARKS...AND LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR.
   
   ...CNTRL TO NERN TX...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING
   EARLY TODAY FROM NWRN TX INTO CNTRL TX AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
   AND INTENSE UPWARD MOTION SPREAD EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. RESIDUAL
   CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS NORTH OF THE GULF COAST FRONT OVER ERN TX
   HAS BEEN GRADUALLY MODIFYING DUE TO DIABATIC EFFECTS OF WIDESPREAD
   HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS MOISTENING HAS RESULTED
   IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE LOWER 60S FROM THE HILL
   COUNTRY TO THE RED RIVER... WITH MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH AND EAST OF
   THE HILL COUNTRY.
   
   DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN A STEADY INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED 
   INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM THE HILL COUNTRY NWD TO THE METROPLEX
   FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING
   WLY FLOW AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER OVER NRN MEXICO AND WEST TX WILL
   ALLOW DRYLINE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS LARGE
   SCALE FORCING SPREADS EAST ATOP THE ADVANCING DRYLINE. VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL STRONGLY FAVOR ROTATING STORMS WITH NUMEROUS LONG TRACK
   SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MAGNITUDE OF
   FORCING...INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR ALL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
   WINDS FROM THE HILL COUNTRY NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE ARKLATEX
   THROUGH LATE EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE N-S BAND OF FORCING/STORMS INTERSECT THE
   WARM FRONT OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAIN. GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
   ALSO EVOLVE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST (SEE BELOW).
   
   EVENTUALLY STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE SURGE SHOULD
   PROMOTE INCREASINGLY LINEAR STRUCTURE EVOLVING FROM DISCRETE
   CONVECTION. THIS SQUALL LINE COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OVER A
   RATHER LARGE AREA FROM EAST TX ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR AND WRN MS
   THROUGH THE NIGHT.
   
   ...TX GULF COAST...SRN LA...MS/AL...
   PERSISTENT AND INCREASING INFLOW OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
   NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN NUMEROUS INTENSE
   STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING MID
   LEVEL FLOW AND GRADUALLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST THAT TORNADO
   POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE STEADILY
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEVERAL LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE
   TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS...SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE LA
   GULF COAST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS SEVERE WEATHER MAY
   SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS NEW ORLEANS AND AS FAR NORTH AS CNTRL MS BY
   EVENING. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR INLAND TRUE WARM SECTOR
   WILL SPREAD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF
   THE WARM FRONT. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...SEVERE WEATHER
   PROBABILITIES WERE KEPT LOWER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF SERN LA.
   PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES
   IF AIR MASS RECOVERY IS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
   
   ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 11/23/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z