SPC AC 240600
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
   LEX 30 SSE OWB 30 N PAH 10 E MVN 20 E HUF 15 NW DAY 30 E DAY 55 NW
   HTS 25 W LEX.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
   7R4 35 S MCB 20 NW CBM 50 ESE MKL 35 SSE PAH 30 NNE POF 35 W MDH 25
   SE DNV 25 W FDY 10 NE YNG 15 NNE PIT 35 SE PKB 10 W CRW 10 W JKL 20
   N CSV 30 NE CHA 55 S TYS 35 SW AVL 25 NW HKY 30 NNW GSO 30 ENE ECG
   ...CONT... 25 E JAX 30 S CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW ART 10 WSW BTV
   15 SE BML 30 SSE AUG ...CONT... MLB 15 S FMY ...CONT... 30 SSW BPT
   25 WNW MLU 20 S LIT 35 SSW HRO 40 N SGF 40 ENE COU 25 ENE TOL.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH
   VALLEY INCLUDING SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IND...NORTHERN
   KY...AND SOUTHWEST OHIO...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER LARGE PARTS OF THE SOUTH
   AND SOUTHEAST...TN/KY....OH AND EXTREME WESTERN PA...
   
   A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER NRN TX LATE TONIGHT WILL RACE
   NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
   THEN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. IN
   RESPONSE TO VERY INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN LEFT EXIT
   REGION OF 90-100KT MID LEVEL JET...DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
   DEVELOP RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL TO SRN QUEBEC DURING THIS
   FORECAST PERIOD. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS PRECEEDING A STRONG COLD FRONT
   AND INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW WILL BE CHANNELED RAPIDLY NORTH TO THE
   OH VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AIDED BY LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OF
   50-60KT. PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER
   MS/AL THIS MORNING AND THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE DEEP
   SOUTH AND EXTEND FROM THE PIEDMONT OF NC TO NRN FL BY THIS EVENING.
   WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...ENTIRE PREFRONTAL
   CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD BE ON OR JUST OFFSHORE MOST OF THE ERN
   SEABOARD BY EARLY THURSDAY.
   
   ...OH VALLEY...
   DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS SRN IL AND IND
   COINCIDENT WITH WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PRONOUNCED MID
   LEVEL DRY SLOT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 300-800 J PER KG/ IS
   FORECAST BY LATEST SREF AND ETA FOR SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY AREA BETWEEN 18-21Z. INTENSE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...COUPLED WITH VERY
   STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE
   ENVIRONMENT FOR FAST MOVING LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO
   LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MDT RISK
   AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO SHORT
   LINE SEGMENTS WITH WIND DAMAGE/HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL
   SPREADING NEWD INTO OH DURING THE EVENING...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST
   AS WRN PA OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...TN VALLEY....SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
   EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS THE
   SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP AND
   PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE
   DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
   IN THE FORM OF 60-90M HEIGHT FALLS PER 12H...MID LEVEL DRY
   SLOT...AND INCREASINGLY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE
   TO A CONTINUING SEVERE WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SPREADING
   EAST WITH TIME. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING
   LINE SEGMENTS...AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...WILL
   EXIST FROM CNTRL/WRN AL INTO WRN GA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
   RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND GREATER DESTABILIZATION IS
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ISOLATED ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS
   OF ERN SC/NC WELL AHEAD OF THE LARGER SCALE SQUALL LINE AS LOW LEVEL
   FLOW BACKS AND TRANSPORTS GULF STREAM AIRMASS INLAND. WHILE VERTICAL
   SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME ACROSS THESE
   AREAS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH MAY
   TEMPER UPDRAFT STRENGTH THUS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL.
   
   ..CARBIN/BANACOS.. 11/24/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z