Dec- 1-2004 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Dec 1 00:57:51 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20041201 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20041201 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20041201 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20041201 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 010050
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0650 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004
   
   VALID 010100Z - 011200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW BVE 40 E LUL
   35 SW BNA 15 NNE LUK 20 SSE UNI 25 WNW BKW 20 N GSP 30 E CSG 25 SSE
   CEW.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
   UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VLY THIS
   EVENING AND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE OH VLY BY 12Z.  RATHER EXPANSIVE
   WARM CONVEYOR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM THE
   CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE UPPER OH VLY.  
   
   THE STRONGEST TSTMS THROUGH THE DAY HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE COLD
   FRONT ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA WHERE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
   RELATIVELY HIGHER.  BUT...GIVEN THAT STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION...DECREASING INSTABILITY AND
   REMNANT CAP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TSTM INTENSITY/NUMBER WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS SRN AL.  
   
   FARTHER NORTH...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN HAS MOISTENED YIELDING WEAK
   BUOYANCY. GIVEN STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT YET TO MOVE INTO THE
   AREA...A FEW ELEVATED PARCELS MAY BE FORCED TO A COLD ENOUGH LAYER
   /BELOW MINUS 20C/ TO PRODUCE SPORADIC LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT FROM THE
   MID TN VLY TO THE OH RVR.
   
   ..RACY.. 12/01/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z