SPC AC 260103
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0703 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004
   
   VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
   PIE 10 NNE DAB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CEW 40 NNW TLH
   25 W SAV 30 SSW CHS.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN
   FL PENINSULA...
   
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK
   NEWD TOWARD NRN FL/SRN GA OVERNIGHT...AND WEAKEN THIS PERIOD AS IT
   MOVES INTO DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW.  EARLY EVENING SURFACE
   ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE ERN GULF /200 SSW AQQ/. 
   EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL/NRN FL HAS
   LIMITED THE NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER
   SRN FL FROM 10 SW FMY-35 N PBI.  HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURE DATA AND
   VWP DATA INDICATED THAT THE COLD AIR MASS IS ERODING NWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL FL.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AS THE SWLY LLJ INCREASES
   OVERNIGHT AND TRANSLATES EWD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH
   THAT THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL FL WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE/MODIFY...
   ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO RETREAT NWD.
   
   AN AXIS OF MARGINAL-MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXTENDED FROM THE
   WARM SECTOR OVER SRN FL W/NW TO THE SURFACE LOW.  A COUPLE OF SW-NE
   ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS EXTENDED FROM THE SERN GULF INTO SRN FL
   WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  STRONG DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG IS FAVORABLE FOR
   SEVERE STORMS THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SRN FL...WITH AN ATTENDANT
   ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER 00Z
   SOUNDINGS AT MIAMI AND KEY WEST.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
   SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTH FL AND THE KEYS...REFER TO SPCSWOMCD
   #2579.
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM
   FRONT MOVES NNEWD INTO CENTRAL FL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE
   LOW TOWARD WEST CENTRAL FL BY 12Z SUNDAY.  STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ
   INTO CENTRAL FL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WAA FOR MORE
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS SRN GA.  INCREASING
   SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TO 70 KT WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
   SUPPORTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING
   WINDS POSSIBLE.  THIS THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   ..PETERS.. 12/26/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z