SPC AC 061723
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 AM CST TUE JAN 06 2004
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z.
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   MODELS SUGGEST HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO POLAR LOW WILL REDEVELOP EASTWARD
   ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
   ...UPSTREAM...A NEW CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE/DEEPEN OVER
   THE GULF OF ALASKA...TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF WEAKENING EASTERN
   SIBERIAN UPPER RIDGE.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLIFICATION IN 
   THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF
   THE PACIFIC COAST...A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST...AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
   BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL
   CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE
   FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND A GRADUAL MODIFICATION/
   MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
   INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN MAY BECOME
   MORE PRONOUNCED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS
   TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX...AS WEAKENING SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...PROGRESSES
   ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU.
   
   ...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS...
   LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF MOIST/SATURATED
   ENVIRONMENT ABOVE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
   LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
   MOISTENING AT LOWER LEVELS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
   INCREASES OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   STRENGTHENS.  
   
   DESPITE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...AND CONCURRENT STEEPENING OF
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
   LIMITED TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH TEXAS COASTAL
   WATERS.  AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN ENTRANCE REGION OF SUBTROPICAL JET
   STREAK MAY AID DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA.  CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW
   REGIME BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS...ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND
   SOUTHERN BRANCH JET...APPEARS LIKELY TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND AREAS TO THE NORTH/EAST.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/06/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z