SPC AC 190839
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 AM CST THU FEB 19 2004
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE VCT 45 ESE CLL
   20 NNE LFK 20 N SHV 35 WSW PBF 55 ENE LIT 30 WSW DYR 15 SE CGI BLV
   20 NW SPI 35 NE PIA 20 SW CGX 45 N FWA 10 S CLE 35 SSW CAK 15 SSW
   PKB 45 ENE CRW 45 ENE EKN 35 SW IPT 20 SE AVP 10 E JFK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACV 45 NW RBL 40 SE
   RBL 30 NNE SCK 10 E FAT 50 WNW NID 10 NE EDW LGB.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS CURRENTLY OVER
   THE CA/AZ BORDER AND FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
   BEFORE PHASING WITH THE NRN STREAM OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
   VALLEYS DURING THE PERIOD.  SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF OK INTO NRN
   IL BY THE START OF THE PERIOD MOVING NEWD INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE
   VALLEY BY 21/12Z.  THIS ESSENTIALLY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT EWD FROM
   THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EWD EXTENDING FROM ERN NY SWD AND SWWD
   THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.
   
   ...OH/TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
   
   STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY LOW LEVEL JET OF
   50-60 KT THAT WILL EXTEND NEWD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. 
   MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL JET OF 75-85 KT WILL REACH FROM NERN TX INTO
   SRN IL MOVING EWD ACROSS VA/NC LATE FRIDAY.  THIS WILL CREATE
   MODERATE/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION.  MAIN
   PROBLEM WILL BE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO MODIFIED AIR MASS
   OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
   
   ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
   SURFACE LOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  ELSEWHERE...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE GULF STATES FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF FL LATE
   IN THE PERIOD.
   
   ...CENTRAL CA COAST AND VALLEYS...
   
   PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED OVER NWRN CA/SWRN OR
   DURING THE PERIOD.  MODELS BRING SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS/VORTICITY MAXIMA INTO THE REGION FRIDAY.  MID LEVEL THERMAL
   TROUGH OF -20C TO -25C IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM.  SHALLOW
   CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 02/19/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z