SPC AC 271729
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2004
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE
   P07 45 ENE FST 10 SW MAF 30 W LBB 40 NW PVW 10 SE AMA 55 E AMA 45
   NNE CDS 30 SSW LTS 65 WSW SPS 40 W BWD 30 NW JCT 50 W JCT 60 NE P07.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW GDP 40 SSE 4CR
   40 WNW 4CR 25 SSE GNT 35 NW INW 10 NNW GCN 25 ENE SGU 50 WSW U24 20
   SW DPG 10 WSW SLC 40 S RKS 45 E CAG COS 10 W LHX 15 SW LAA 25 ENE
   LAA 30 SE GLD 30 ENE HLC 20 SSW CNK 35 ESE SLN 30 NNE PNC 20 SSE OKC
   25 SW SEP 35 E JCT 45 SSE DRT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND NW
   TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AT THE UPPER-LEVELS...A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD
   INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT
   PLAINS WILL BECOME SWLY ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER-RIDGE MOVES EWD INTO
   THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
   CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...WEST TX...
   A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO YESTERDAY HAS
   LOWERED SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO THE 40S F.
   HOWEVER...UPPER 50 AND LOWER 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY EXIST
   ALONG THE NRN COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE.
   AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EWD...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
   ACROSS WEST TX...WRN OK AND WRN KS. HOW FAR NWD MOISTURE FROM THE
   WRN GULF OF MEXICO GETS BY SATURDAY IS UNCERTAIN BUT SFC DEWPOINTS
   ABOVE 50 F SHOULD AT LEAST MAKE IT THROUGH MUCH OF WEST TX RESULTING
   IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LOW
   APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING OF THE
   UPPER-LOW. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS WEST
   TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE TENDENCY FOR SW
   LOWS TO COME IN SLOWER THAN FORECAST...IT COULD MEAN THAT THE BEST
   TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY AS THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
   SUPERCELLS...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD W TX BY
   SATURDAY NIGHT AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP UP ON THE
   CAPROCK AFTER 06Z SUNDAY AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE LOW-ROLLING
   PLAINS. THIS COUPLED WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND STEEPENING LAPSE
   RATES IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN A THREAT
   FOR LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 02/27/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z