SPC AC 050733
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0133 AM CST FRI MAR 05 2004
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW DAB 45 ESE TLH
   10 NE MAI 35 NW AUO 50 SE BNA 30 SSE LEX 30 NW HLG 10 NE SYR 20 WSW
   BML 15 WNW BHB.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THIS EVENING IN PLACEMENT AND
   STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
   DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
   U.S. SATURDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM
   QUICKLY DIGS SEWD OUT OF CANADA AND AMPLIFIES LATER IN THE PERIOD
   OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
   
   ...SRN AND MID ATLANTIC...
   LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING ALONG/NEAR THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.  AS LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS INTO
   THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...SRN PORTION OF THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO
   WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  MODELS SUGGEST BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL BECOME SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST ALONG THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST
   INTO THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS
   INCREASE INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S ON STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. 
   HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY WEAK
   POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPES AOB
   300 J/KG.  VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE MAY MIX DOWNWARD
   AS CONVECTIVE LINE SHIFTS EWD INTO WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
   CENTRAL/ERN NC WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO
   UPPER 70S.  HOWEVER...VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION SUGGEST
   ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WARRANTED
   ATTM.
   
   ..EVANS.. 03/05/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z