SPC AC 110839
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CST THU MAR 11 2004
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 E 63S 10 SW CTB 45
SW HVR 80 NNE BIL 45 WNW 4BQ WRL 35 NNE IDA 10 WNW 27U S80 25 E GEG
75 E 63S.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN GBN IGM 10 N
SGU U24 15 NW SLC RIW CPR DGW 10 NNW CYS DEN 20 SSW COS LVS 4CR ROW
HOB BGS 10 SSE SJT LRD.
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
MODELS SUGGEST VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OFF THE
NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...MID/UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
APPALACHIANS...AS LARGE-SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO EVOLVE UPSTREAM...
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR
LARGELY AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS EAST OF EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN AMPLIFYING/DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...AND EMBEDDED JET
STREAKS...ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES. IN RESPONSE...CLOSED
LOW/UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...TEXAS...
INFLUX OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL OCCUR
BY EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE
HEATING. FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR...
EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. WITH PROSPECTS FOR SUBSTANTIAL
DESTABILIZATION LIMITED...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
APPEARS VERY LOW.
...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HEATING WILL EXIST ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES...BENEATH
UPPER THERMAL TROUGH. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...OROGRAPHY SHOULD
AID DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MID DAY HOURS AS
ENVIRONMENT DESTABILIZES. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA...AIDED
BY FORCING/DESTABILIZATION IN EXIT REGION OF VIGOROUS MID/UPPER
SPEED MAXIMUM. AS JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DIG...AND ASSOCIATED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTHEASTWARD...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL COOLING...WHICH
WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT.
..KERR.. 03/11/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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