SPC AC 231654
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1054 AM CST TUE MAR 23 2004
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW RRT 15 NW FAR
   55 W AXN 30 NW RWF 10 N MKT 20 W LSE 30 SSW MTW 30 ENE FNT 25 NW CLE
   15 WNW CMH 10 SSE MTO 30 SE VIH 35 NW FYV 10 SE FTW 50 NW LRD
   ...CONT... 40 SW MRF 30 NW MAF 30 S LAA 15 WSW RTN 20 NW FMN 35 SW
   PIH 40 WSW BOI 15 SW BNO 60 SW PDT 30 NW PUW 50 NE 63S.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE
   PACIFIC NW EWD INTO THE NERN STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR
   41N AND 142W WILL PROGRESS EWD AND SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST OFF THE
   NRN CA/ORE COAST INITIALLY. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS
   NEWD THROUGH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WHICH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NRN
   ROCKIES.
   
   A SECONDARY...SRN BRANCH OF MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP
   FROM BAJA CA/NRN MEXICO EWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES... UPSTREAM FROM
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE OBSERVED
   IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 32N AND 126W WILL ALSO PROGRESS
   EWD...REACHING THE SRN ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
   
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY
   FROM SWRN NEB SWD INTO WRN TX WITH LITTLE EWD MOVEMENT EXPECTED.
   THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MORE SO IN
   THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
   THEREAFTER...SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING
   NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
   INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
   
   ...DAKOTAS SWD INTO WRN TX...
   EWD MOVEMENT OF LARGE ERN CONUS ANTICYCLONE INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC
   WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OFF
   THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO NWD INTO THE PLAINS. ACCORDINGLY...EXPECT
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE NWD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
   E OF DRYLINE WITH A NARROW AXIS OF 60F DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE AS FAR N
   AS SRN NEB BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. COEXISTENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5 C/KM ATOP THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY AFTERNOON FROM WRN TX/WRN OK NWD
   THROUGH KS INTO CNTRL/ERN NEB AND WRN IA WHERE MLCAPES WILL APPROACH
   1000-2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED DIURNAL STORM OR TWO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY INACTIVE OWING TO
   PRONOUNCED CAP OBSERVED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ABSENCE OF ANY
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
   WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP.
   
   THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY
   NIGHT FROM NEB NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. HERE...INCREASED FORCING FOR
   ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ALONG LLJ AXIS SHOULD AID IN
   MOISTENING/COOLING OF CAP LAYER. STORMS MAY TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/23/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z