SPC AC 180734
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2004
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
   PVW 30 SSW DHT 25 WNW CAO 15 SSW LHX 40 SE LIC 20 S IML 45 W EAR 25
   ESE HSI 15 WNW MHK 25 E ICT 40 ENE CSM 20 W LTS 25 NNE PVW.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSW P07 20 W HOB
   40 SSW TCC 30 SW RTN 20 ESE ALS 55 SSW GJT 40 NW 4HV 25 N ENV 25 N
   TWF 40 SW 27U 15 SE LWT 55 N OLF 55 NNE ISN 10 SSE P24 30 NE MBG 30
   W HON 55 WSW FOD 35 N BRL 25 ENE MMO 15 SSW GRR 10 NE APN ...CONT...
   50 NW 3B1 15 NE RUT 30 SE ELM 10 SW ZZV 15 SE LUK 15 SW EVV 30 NNE
   POF 20 NE HRO 20 SSW MLC 40 NNE MWL 35 NNW JCT 10 SW DRT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SRN PLAINS....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NW AZ EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
   NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY...AND CONTINUE ON TO SRN
   QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE WEAKENING.  AN
   ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MI DURING THE
   DAY AND NY/NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE SWRN
   EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL FROM ROUGHLY SRN OH TO
   CENTRAL/NRN MO MONDAY NIGHT.  A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY IS
   EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT FROM SE LOWER MI TO MO
   DURING THE DAY...WHERE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH THESE
   STORMS...BUT SPARSE COVERAGE AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY
   SUGGESTS THAT ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED.
   
   ...PLAINS AREA...
   FARTHER W...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW LOCATED W OF WA AND ORE
   ALONG 130 W/ WILL DIG SEWD TODAY AND THE MOVE EWD AND EMERGE OVER
   THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM/CO LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS
   EXPECTED INVOF SE CO/SW KS BY MONDAY EVENING...AND A SURFACE LOW IS
   FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD INTO KS ALONG THE RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
   IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING GREAT LAKES SYSTEM. THOUGH THE TRUE
   MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE GULF BASIN AND
   UNLIKELY TO REGENERATE DURING THE NEXT 60 HOURS...ELY TRAJECTORIES
   ACROSS THE GULF WILL SUPPORT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID
   60S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
   ALONG THE LEE CYCLONE/DRYLINE ACROSS EXTREME NE NM/SE CO AND THE TX
   PANHANDLE.  ANY STORMS THAT FORM THIS AREA COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS
   WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A GENERAL INCREASE IN
   CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS NW OK AND KS AS WAA INCREASES.
    DESTABILIZATION NEAR AND ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
   ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL WELL N ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE
   END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 04/18/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z