SPC AC 181721
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2004
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
   PVW 30 SSW DHT 25 WNW CAO 15 SSW LHX 40 SE LIC 20 WNW LBF 35 NNW GRI
   OLU 20 NE BIE 25 E ICT 40 ENE CSM 20 W LTS 25 NNE PVW.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW 3B1 20 ENE EEN
   25 ENE ABE 40 W EKN 25 N JKL 25 W BWG 40 ESE POF 25 ESE HRO 40 NNW
   PRX 20 W MWL 35 NNW JCT 10 SW DRT ...CONT... 80 SSW P07 20 W HOB 40
   SSW TCC 30 SW RTN 20 ESE ALS 55 SSW GJT 40 NW 4HV 25 N ENV 25 N TWF
   40 SW 27U 15 SE LWT 55 N OLF 55 NNE ISN 30 SSE MOT 35 W JMS 40 NNE
   ABR 20 E OTG 35 N BRL 25 ENE MMO 15 SSW GRR 35 ESE ANJ.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ONTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL
   TRANSLATE NEWD AND WEAKEN OVER SERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. 
   IN ITS WAKE...A NEW UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
   MONDAY...QUICKLY TRANSLATING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS
   BY EARLY TUESDAY.  STRONGEST MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE
   BASE OF THE TROUGH...REACHING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING.
    
   
   AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
   UPPER OH VLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL
   STALL...THEN REDEVELOP NWD THROUGH MO/KS MONDAY NIGHT AS LEE LOW
   REDEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
   
   ...THE PLAINS...
   AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
   TROUGH...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
   WILL ADVECT WNWWD INTO PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BENEATH MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM.  STRONGEST HEATING SHOULD TAKE PLACE OVER
   ERN NM...SERN CO...SWRN KS AND TX PNHDL...ALONG NWRN EDGE OF
   SUBTROPICAL CLOUD CANOPY CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE POTENTIAL
   INSTABILITY BY MONDAY EVENING. FARTHER EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
   ZONE...MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD RETARD
   HEATING.
   
   LEE-LOW AND DRYLINE SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY
   LATE AFTERNOON AND TSTMS ARE APT TO INITIATE ANYWHERE IN NERN
   NM...SERN CO OR THE TX PNHDL.  ANY TSTMS COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS
   WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  FARTHER NORTH...TSTMS WILL
   LIKELY FORM OVER THE CO/WY MOUNTAINS AND MOVE ONTO THE ADJACENT
   PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY.  INSTABILITY THIS FAR N IS RATHER
   MEAGER...AND TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE DURING THE DAY.
   
   LATER ON...AS THE LLJ INCREASES...SEVERAL SMALL MCS/S ARE LIKELY TO
   EVOLVE OVER THE PLAINS. LLJ APPEARS TO DEVELOP INTO TWO
   BRANCHES...ONE AIMED INTO KS...THE OTHER INTO THE NRN PLAINS. 
   STRONGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF NEB AND KS
   AND NWRN OK WHERE TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A HAIL/WIND THREAT INTO
   THE OVERNIGHT. FARTHER N IN THE NRN PLAINS...LESS INSTABILITY
   SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND/HAIL.
   
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VLY REGION...
   TAIL END OF EJECTING/WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
   REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONT WILL BECOME UNSTABLE...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
   WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE H7.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND HEATING
   MAY COMPENSATE THE WARM LAYER ALOFT AND MAINTAIN A TSTM THREAT THE
   LENGTH OF THE FRONT FROM ME-OH.  STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY YIELD HAIL OR
   GUSTY WIND...BUT GIVEN SOMEWHAT LOW INSTABILITY...COVERAGE SHOULD
   REMAIN ISOLD AT BEST.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/18/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z