SPC AC 051736
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 PM CDT WED MAY 05 2004
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
   ART 40 ESE ART 30 NNE BGM 50 ESE BFD 10 WSW YNG 10 NNE DNV 25 WNW
   SPI 35 E IRK 35 ENE P35 30 SSW DSM 35 NNW DSM 25 ESE MCW 30 E VOK 20
   ESE APN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 20 SSE BIS
   15 S RAP 40 W CDR 35 ESE DGW 20 W DGW 15 ESE WRL 45 ESE WEY 55 N SUN
   65 ESE BNO 50 N SVE 50 SE MHS 30 SW MHS 35 E 4BK 35 ENE OTH 25 ENE
   BLI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE NEL 35 SW HLG
   15 N STL 10 WNW SZL 25 NNW EMP SLN 35 WSW CNK 35 S HSI 10 SSE GRI 15
   ENE OFK SPW 35 SW EAU 30 S IMT 35 SE ANJ ...CONT... 30 NNW BML 35
   NNW AUG 30 WSW BHB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SSW P07 30 WNW FST
   20 NNW INK 20 E HOB 45 NNW BGS 20 E BGS 25 WSW SJT DRT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF IA...FAR NE
   MO...NRN IL...SRN WI...LOWER MI...NRN IND...NRN OH...NRN PA AND WRN
   NY...
   
   ...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
   
   A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS MN AND WI TONIGHT
   REACHING ERN IA...FAR NRN IL AND SRN LOWER MI ON THURSDAY. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOWS MODERATE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
   WILL LIKELY EXIST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE CAP SHOULD BE WEAK
   ENOUGH EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THIS COUPLED WITH
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   ACROSS WI AND LOWER MI. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AT
   UPPER-LEVELS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MOVING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   ACROSS THE REGION ON DAY 2. THE MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD
   EXTENDING FROM NRN IL EWD TO WRN NY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   INITIATION IS LESS CERTAIN IN THE WRN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA DUE TO THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER
   SFC HEATING ACROSS IA AND IL WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
   THE MID TO UPPER 80S F...LIKELY RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 50 TO 60 KT
   OF 0-6 SHEAR IN PLACE AND THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
   THUNDERSTORMS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. TEMPS ALOFT WILL NOT BE
   PARTICULARLY COLD FOR MAY BUT THE SFC HEATING...STRONG SHEAR AND
   STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR A LARGE HAIL THREAT. A WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT SHOULD ALSO EXIST WITH STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY
   WHERE THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OCCUR. AS INSTABILITY
   DECREASES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
   GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/05/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z