Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
 
   

Search SPC
 

May-10-2004 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
      
 
Probabilistic Graphic (more info)
0800 Day 2 Prob Graphic
(Select thumbnail to view full image)
   SPC AC 100910
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0410 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2004
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
   DLH 20 ESE FRM 40 NNW OMA 45 S HLC 30 WSW CDS 15 N LBB 35 ENE CVS 35
   ESE AKO 35 ESE CYS 35 SW DGW 35 N DGW 30 SE RAP 45 SE BIS 75 NE DVL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PIA 20 WSW OTM
   30 SSE CNK 30 ESE END 25 WNW MWL 25 NW JCT 15 S SAT 35 NE LFK 10 WNW
   GLH 25 E MEM 30 E SLO 20 E PIA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTB 25 SSE 3HT
   45 SW 4BQ 30 SE Y22 60 N DVL ...CONT... 30 SSE DOV LYH 30 N AND ATL
   10 SE PNS ...CONT... 90 SSW P07 20 S CNM 35 SSE RTN 25 ENE 4BL 20
   SSW SGU 20 WNW ELY BNO 15 NNE YKM 35 N 4OM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY...
   
   CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICS ERROR
   
   ...NORTHERN PLAINS...
   LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE ROCKIES ON
   TUESDAY...WITH BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM CO INTO
   MN.  MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALSO LIE IN THIS
   AXIS...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 
   AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT WILL BE MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE
   WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. 
   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
   LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST NEB INTO EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. 
   THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AS
   SECONDARY COLD FRONT SURGES INTO AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS
   WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/SD/MN OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY...HELPING TO MAINTAIN AT
   LEAST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN
   KS.  FULL SUNSHINE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG THE DRYLINE WITH
   AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500+ J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NORTHWARD ACROSS
   WESTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST NEB. COMBINATION OF HIGH INSTABILITY AND
   SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
   OF LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..HART.. 05/10/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home