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May-14-2004 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Graphics:  catagorical| probabilistic
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   SPC AC 141708
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1208 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2004
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S WAL 25 ENE GSO
   40 S SPA 50 W AGS 40 NNE MGR 35 SE VLD 30 S GNV MLB ...CONT... 20 S
   LCH 15 SE GLH 30 SW CKV 35 SE SDF 20 SW UNI 20 S DUJ 10 SE SYR 30
   NNE PBG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ELO 40 ENE BUB
   45 ENE MCK 40 NW GCK 25 E DHT 10 WSW HOB 50 SW MRF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE DUG 25 NW TCS
   20 E SAF 35 NW TAD 30 E DEN 55 ENE DGW 15 W 81V 45 W 4BQ 45 SE BIL
   50 NW PIH 40 W OWY 80 WNW WMC 45 WNW SVE 35 SSE MHS 20 WNW MHS 35
   ENE EUG 25 ENE BLI.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NORTHERN PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS...
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
   THE REGION. HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL
   TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS NWD. SFC
   DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE 40S F ACROSS MT...SD AND ND BY AFTERNOON
   WITH SOME 50 F DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE. SFC TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
   65 TO 70 F SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE RELATIVELY
   DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR SHOULD KEEP MLCAPE VALUES BELOW 500 J/KG.
   THIS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS.
   
   AT UPPER-LEVELS...A BROAD NRN US TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS DURING THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
   AGREEMENT...SPREADING A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM WEST TO EAST
   ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LIFT COMBINED WITH
   CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SCATTERED STORM INITIATION. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
   NRN ROCKIES DUE TO SFC HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING. THIS
   CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST
   ACROSS THE ENTIRE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. THIS
   SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE MOISTURE
   AND INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ALOFT
   (500 MB TEMPS AROUND -20C) AND THIS WILL FAVOR A HAIL POTENTIAL. THE
   WINDOW FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE NARROW AND FOCUSED NEAR PEAK HEATING DUE
   TO THE MINIMAL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH WARMER MID-LEVEL
   TEMPS WILL EXIST ACROSS CO AND WY...THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO HAVE A
   HAIL POTENTIAL MAINLY BEFORE DARK.
   
   
   ...MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES...
   
   A WELL-DEFINED MOIST AXIS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM ERN VA
   EXTENDING NWD TO SCNTRL NY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 65 TO 70
   F. THIS AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AND WARMING SFC
   TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON.
   
   A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SRN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD
   TONIGHT AND SHOULD REACH COASTAL AREAS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
   AND NEW ENGLAND STATES BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
   AXIS AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   AT THE MID-LEVELS...A BROAD UNITED STATES TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO
   THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES STATES. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS SATURDAY.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS THAN 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS WILL
   BE PROBLEMATIC FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND WILL FAVOR A MULTICELL
   MODE OF CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH
   FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING
   ALOFT...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND THE STORMS SHOULD DIE
   QUICKLY AFTER DARK.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/14/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
        
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