SPC AC 291751
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
   CBM GLH 35 NW TXK 20 E FSM 45 ENE COU 10 WSW JVL 25 E SBN 15 SW MFD
   20 ENE PKB 10 NE 5I3 40 NW CHA 30 NE CBM.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E
   CHA 25 ESE RMG 45 SW TCL 30 WNW MLU 15 E DAL 55 E OKC 35 WSW JLN 30
   WNW SZL 20 W LSE 50 NW EAU 35 WNW AUW 25 SE GRR 25 WSW DUJ 20 SSE
   LBE 45 SW EKN 50 E CHA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N BUF 25 SSE IPT
   25 SSE NEL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE SSI 30 WNW ABY
   20 WSW PNS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BPT 25 N VCT 45
   SE JCT 25 SE MWL 25 NNW CSM 30 NNW P28 15 ENE HLC 30 ENE LIC 45 WSW
   LAR 15 S 81V 65 NW GGW.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AR / SERN MO /
   IL / IN / OH / KY / TN / NRN MS AND NWRN AL...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
   AREA...AND COVERING MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE ARKLATEX NWD INTO WI
   AND EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SIGNIFICANT / WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT SHAPING UP FOR THE DAY 2
   PERIOD ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM AR / SERN MO / IL EWD TO THE
   APPALACHIANS AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- AND
   ASSOCIATED 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
   PLAINS INTO THE MS / OH / TN VALLEYS.  TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON
   AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME...WITH LARGE AREA OF
   DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   AT THE LOW LEVELS...STRONG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT
   WILL ADVECT 70S DEWPOINTS NWD TO THE SRN FRINGES OF THE GREAT LAKES
   ALONG AND SOUTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY
   EXPECTED FROM A SRN MN LOW CENTER SWWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO WRN OK IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TO AN IL / SERN MO / NWRN AR / NERN TX LINE BY
   LATE AFTERNOON.  OVERNIGHT...THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
   EWD...CROSSING THE TN VALLEY AND REACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY THE
   END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ...MID MS  / TN / OH VALLEYS...
   ONGOING CONVECTION -- PARTICULARLY ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT
   ACROSS IA / IL AND THE OH VALLEY REGION -- WILL COMPLICATE THE
   FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD...AS WILL UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
   CONVECTIVE MODE -- I.E. PRIMARILY LINEAR VS. MORE ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS OR SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO.  HOWEVER...BROAD PICTURE
   INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT / WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ACROSS A
   LARGE AREA FROM PARTS OF AR / MO / IL EWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS AS
   VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS NWD BENEATH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
   UPPER FLOW.
   
   ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INVOF
   RETREATING WARM FRONT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...INITIAL SEVERE THREAT
   WILL LIKELY BE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WIND FIELD SPREADS SLOWLY EWD
   ACROSS THE MS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY.  AIRMASS SHOULD
   BECOME AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE /2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
   CAPE/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY
   EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  STRENGTH OF FORCING ALONG FRONT
   SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY EVOLVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY INTO A LINE. 
   HOWEVER... WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WOULD ALSO
   SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER AHEAD OF
   FRONT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  MOST WIDESPREAD PRE-COLD FRONTAL
   DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG WARM FRONT...AND AS
   DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUPERCELL
   STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ALONG
   THIS BOUNDARY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE  MOVING NWD ACROSS NRN IL / NRN
   IN / OH.
   
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...STORMS WILL LIKELY TREND TOWARD A
   LINEAR CONFIGURATION WITH TIME...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS REMAINING MORE
   ISOLATED FURTHER S INTO AR GIVEN THAT CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONGER AND
   UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOCUSED A BIT FURTHER NORTH.  IN ADDITION TO
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
   WINDS...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
   ALONG LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...GREATEST
   THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT / LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WOULD LIKELY BE WITH
   MORE ISOLATED STORMS -- MAINLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OR INVOF
   RETREATING WARM FRONT.
   
   OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR ALONG AND
   AHEAD OF EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...WHILE SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING
   WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND TORNADOES...WILL CONTINUE --
   LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/29/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z