SPC AC 110729
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TUL 40
   E SPS SJT BGS CDS 45 NE DDC EAR YKN RWF MSP AUW MTW CGX PIA SZL TUL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S MRF MAF 60 WSW
   GAG LBL LAA ALS CEZ U17 U24 RIW RAP BRD BJI 10 W JMS MLS BZN MSO 3TH
   75 ENE 63S ...CONT... ERI LBE LYH 35 SE EWN ...CONT... PFN 20 S AUO
   HSV ARG PGO FTW DRT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON FRIDAY FROM WEST TX INTO THE
   UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER MS VALLEY...
   
   BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON
   SATURDAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS
   FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  PRIMARY SURFACE
   LOW IS LIKELY TO BE OVER WEST-CENTRAL KS...WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING
   SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TX...AND WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
   IA.  THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON DAY2.
   
   ...KS/OK/TX...
   ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON LOCATION OF DRYLINE ON
   SATURDAY...WITH ETA SOLUTION SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL KS. 
   ETA ALSO SHOWS MESOSCALE DETAILS OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
   NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS THAT ARE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. 
   HOWEVER...PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KS INTO
   NORTHWEST TX.  FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND AMPLE CAPE
   INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY
   RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD TO THE RIO
   GRANDE ON SATURDAY.
   
   ...NEB/IA/MO/WI...
   SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM LOW OVER KS INTO IA ON SATURDAY
   MORNING...WITH BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. 
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG HEATING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NEAR
   WARM FRONT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT.  VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
   OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..HART.. 06/11/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z