SPC AC 110743
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E
   MQT 20 SW ESC 20 S GRB 25 SW MKE 35 S CGX 35 NW LAF 15 S CMI 30 N
   ALN 35 S IRK STJ 40 SSW HSI 25 ESE IML 30 E SNY 50 ENE CDR 25 ESE
   PIR 20 NNE ATY 15 E BRD 40 SE ELO 70 E ELO.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N 63S 55 WNW PUW
   25 ESE PDT 65 NNE 4LW 35 ENE MHS 45 W MHS 25 SW EUG 35 E AST 25 NW
   BLI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 10 ESE 3B1 15 ESE
   CON 15 ESE JFK ...CONT... GLS 40 NNE HOU 20 WNW LFK 25 SW SHV 30 E
   ELD 50 N GLH 30 NNW MEM 50 NW POF 40 NNW SGF 25 E HUT 10 E GCK 40
   SSW LAA 25 NE LVS 25 WSW 4CR 15 SE ELP ...CONT... 85 WSW TUS 40 ESE
   GBN 25 NNE INW 40 NE CEZ 40 ENE CAG 35 NW CPR 40 NE SHR 45 NNW REJ
   45 NE Y22 25 ESE JMS 15 NNE BJI 20 N ELO.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
   AND MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGIONS....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED MOSTLY BY STRONG
   MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CO DURING THE PERIOD.  MODELS
   INDICATE THE THERE WILL BE A STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL
   TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD THAT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN WINNIPEG.  THIS
   WILL STRENGTHEN NWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE
   SURFACE...SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SD INITIALLY WILL MOVE SEWD
   ACROSS NERN NEB MONDAY NIGHT ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG QUASI-
   STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SD ESEWD ACROSS IA...IL AND IN THRU
   PARTS OF OH INTO NERN VA.
   
   ...UPPER MS AND MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...
   
   BOTH MODELS ENHANCE SURFACE LOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
   LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT FROM ERN SD ESEWD THROUGH IA.
    AIR MASS E OF THE LOW AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BECOMES
   VERY UNSTABLE AS MODELS PROJECT SBCAPE TO BE 3000-4500 J/KG BY
   13/00Z ACROSS THIS AREA.  FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 8.0-8.5 C/KM ACROSS WRN PARTS OF THE
   15-25 PERCENT PROBABILITY AREA ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50
   KT.  THUS...THIS AREA LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR BOW ECHO TYPE ACTIVITY
   MONDAY NIGHT.
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E/NE OF THE SURFACE LOW
    OVER ERN SD NNEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MN. 
   AS NWLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP
   INTO SEVERAL BOW ECHO TYPE SIGNATURES THAT WILL MOVE SEWD AFFECTING
   SRN MN AND MUCH OF IA BY 13/12Z.  GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   AND 0-1KM HELICITY BETWEEN 100-200 M2/S2...ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD
   OCCUR OVER PARTS OF SERN SD/WRN IA EARLY MONDAY EVENING. 
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH
   INSTABILITY...MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 07/11/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z