SPC AC 260730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2004
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW
   RRT 40 ENE ABR 20 E ANW 30 NW IML 10 SSE BFF 25 NNW CPR 55 ENE COD
   30 SE 4BQ 35 SE DIK 50 NNE MOT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N BML 35 SE AUG
   ...CONT... 40 E INL 30 NW RWF 15 SE OLU 20 NNW HUT 20 WNW OKC 20 NNE
   FTW 30 SW LFK 10 N BTR 15 N SEM 20 W HSS 25 ENE CRW 20 ENE CMH 10 W
   DAY 30 ESE SBN 35 SE OSC 160 NNW BUF ...CONT... 20 SE IPL 30 E EED
   40 SSE PGA 30 SSW 4HV 30 SW U24 35 N DPG 20 WNW RKS 25 SSE RIW 30
   ENE WEY 25 NNW 27U 50 S S06 45 NE 63S.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LWR 48 ON TUESDAY
   AS POTENT UPPER SYSTEM NOW ENTERING AB CONTINUES E/SE ACROSS
   SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA.  AT THE SAME TIME...TROUGH NOW OVER THE
   MID MS VLY EXPECTED TO FURTHER AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY E/NE
   UP THE OH VLY. FARTHER S...A WEAK...CYCLONICALLY-CURVED SRN BANACH
   JET WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN GRT BASIN ACROSS THE SRN PLNS TO THE
   LWR MS VLY.
   
   AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SASKATCHEWAN SYSTEM
   EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NRN MT INTO WY AND THE DAKS DURING THE
   PERIOD...WHILE LEE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS PROGRESSES
   E INTO THE DAKS/CNTRL NEB.  IN THE EAST...WEAK LOW NEARLY COLOCATED
   WITH OH VLY UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY E FROM OH INTO
   WRN PA/NY AS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS N ACROSS MD/DE.
   
   ...NRN PLNS...
   THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING INVOF COLD
   FRONT SRN MT AND NRN/CNTRL WY...WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
   OF 500 TO 1000 J PER KG/ AND 35-40 KT DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO
   SUPPORT SUSTAINED ACTIVITY/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.  STORMS MAY ALSO
   FORM IN MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN
   THE DAKOTAS...WRN/CNTRL NEB AND ERN CO.  GREATER INSTABILITY WILL
   EXIST IN THIS REGION RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER W /MLCAPE TO 2000 J
   PER KG/...BUT DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK /RANGING FROM AROUND 15
   KTS IN CO TO 25 KTS IN ND/.
   
   HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED
   STORMS... ESPECIALLY IN SRN MT/WY...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD
   OCCUR IN THE DAKOTAS.  OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT...HOWEVER...APPEAR
   SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE.  WHILE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE
   ACTIVITY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO THAT PERSIST INTO
   WEDNESDAY MORNING...WEAKNESS OF DEEP SHEAR AND ABSENCE OF RICH
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
   LIMITED.
   
   ...UPR OH VLY TO MID ATL CST...
   A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF
   SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR IN AREA E/SE OF SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
   WITH OH VLY UPPER TROUGH.  WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SLOW RETREAT
   OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE OVER REGION WILL LIKELY
   LIMIT LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT...WHERE
   FAVORABLE MOISTURE/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT /LOW LCLS...CONSIDERABLE
   LOW LEVEL VEERING...SFC TO 1 KM SHEAR AOA 25 KTS/ WILL EXIST. 
   SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON PRESENCE OF BREAKS IN THE
   CLOUDS WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF
   BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF
   SUNSHINE...A CATEGORICAL SEVERE OUTLOOK SEEMS UNJUSTIFIED ATTM.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 07/26/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z