Sep- 2-2004 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 2 17:28:26 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20040902 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Graphic
20040902 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 021722
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2004
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ELO 50 NW HIB
   55 E FAR ATY 25 NNE BUB 10 WSW LBF 10 S SNY 30 E FCL 40 SSW DEN 35
   NW LVS 45 SE ELP ...CONT... 80 S GBN 35 WNW PHX 50 ENE IGM 10 SSE
   SGU 45 S ENV 15 WSW BYI 30 S S80 70 ENE 63S.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE DRT 10 WNW ACT
   25 N TXK 45 SSW UNO 15 SSW STL 30 W PIA 30 SW MKE 35 NE MKG 35 SE
   OSC ...CONT... 30 WSW BUF 15 NE JHW 30 S JHW 30 SSW FKL 30 NE HTS 30
   NNE TYS 15 WNW ATL 40 SSE ATL 35 E MCN 10 SSE AGS GSO 15 ENE CHO 20
   NW DCA 20 WSW ILG 20 ENE ACY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EPM BML MSS.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...DAKOTAS...
   A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   WRN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD WITH
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
   WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
   FRIDAY.
   
   AT THE SFC...A LOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NCNTRL ND WITH A
   TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD TO NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. A GRADUAL MOISTENING
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW AND SPREADS SWD
   INTO NRN SD. SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
   STRONG UPDRAFTS. AND CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR DUE TO
   THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT...STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS
   COMBINED WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -12C AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT
   MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL AND MARGINAL DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
   CELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE SFC
   TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...GRADUALLY SPREADING NEWD IN THE
   EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY DECREASES DURING THE EVENING.
   
   ...ERN FL...
   HURRICANE FRANCES IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING SAN SALVADOR IN THE
   BAHAMAS. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IT WEST NORTHWESTWARD REACHING THE
   SE TO ECNTRL FL COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HURRICANE
   APPROACHES FL FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FAR OUTER BANDS WILL BEGIN TO
   SPREAD INLAND. A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
   THE STRONGER BANDS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL
   LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES THAT SHOULD KEEP ANY TORNADO THREAT MINIMAL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 09/02/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z