SPC AC 051711
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1211 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2004
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
   CEW 30 NNW CEW 15 S MGM 10 WSW CSG 25 SSW MCN 30 NNW AYS 30 SSW AYS
   40 NNE CTY 20 WSW CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 ESE OSC 35 WNW FDY
   EVV 10 W MEM 50 NW ESF 20 S BPT ...CONT... 70 WNW MRF 35 S MAF 55
   NNE ABI 35 SW TUL 50 N SZL 30 N ALO 60 N EAU 55 ENE ELO.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW MOB 20 SE LUL
   20 NNE MEI 15 NNW TCL 10 SSW GAD 40 WNW AHN 20 W CLT DAN 30 WSW NHK
   30 SSE DOV.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL
   PANHANDLE...SE AL AND SW GA...
   
   ...FL PANHANDLE/SRN AL/SRN GA...
   HURRICANE FRANCES WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS WRN FL...THE
   FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO AND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE FL PANHANDLE
   MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
   CENTER EMBEDDED IN BROKEN RAINBANDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE FL
   PANHANDLE SHOW EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH 25 TO 30 KT OF 0-1 KM
   SHEAR. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE
   TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS FRANCES MOVES INLAND
   ACROSS SE AL AND SE GA.
   
   ...CAROLINAS...
   SFC WINDS SHOW A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY EXISTS OFF
   THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. STRONG SELY SFC WINDS WILL HELP MOVE THE
   FRONT NWWD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS BY MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A
   FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
   COASTAL NC SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 1200 J/KG WITH ABOUT 25 TO 30
   KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
   STORMS MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. VEERING WIND PROFILES AT THE
   LOW-LEVELS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUGGEST A MARGINAL
   TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY INCREASES MONDAY
   AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE BOUNDARY
   GETS TO THE COASTAL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
   
   ...GREAT LAKES...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
   NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...A
   COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
   LOWER 70S F SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG BY MONDAY
   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT APPEAR STEEP AND
   WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. STILL...THE INSTABILITY AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT NEAR PEAK
   HEATING FOR HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 09/05/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z