SPC AC 270654
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2004
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW FHU 35 ESE GBN
15 N BLH 40 NNW TRM 20 ENE FAT 15 W SVE 40 SE MHS 30 E EKA 30 SE CEC
50 ESE OTH 45 W RDM 35 W PUW 50 E 63S 40 WNW FCA 35 WNW GTF 25 WNW
3HT 50 NNE BIL 50 SSW OLF ISN 25 NNW MOT 50 WNW DVL 45 WNW JMS 35
ENE 81V 55 WNW CDR 15 S AIA 10 SSE LBF 35 NE HLC 25 SW RSL 30 SSW
LBL 35 NNE PVW 30 NNE BGS 45 NW LRD.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S TLH 35 WSW ABY
30 E LGC 10 WNW AHN CLT 60 SSW RIC 30 ESE SBY.
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
AND ERN NC DURING THE DAY. AN INFLUX OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO
OR TWO...AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS. STILL...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE WEAKENING WITH TIME ACROSS ERN NC AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG...SO THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE
TOO MARGINAL FOR A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE...A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST WITH THE STRONGER NRN
STREAM EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER CANADA AND NRN NEW ENGLAND...AND A
WEAKER SUBTROPICAL STREAM INVOF THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER. WITHIN THE
SRN STREAM...THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN CA/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT PERSISTENT ASCENT
AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTENING NEAR THE RIM IN AZ SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY TOMORROW EVENING.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT THIS AREA.
OTHER MORE ISOLATED /MAINLY DIURNAL/ THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STEEP L0W-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK BUOYANCY.
..THOMPSON.. 09/27/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z
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