Sep-27-2004 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 27 06:56:31 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20040927 0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Graphic
20040927 0800 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 270654
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2004
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW FHU 35 ESE GBN
   15 N BLH 40 NNW TRM 20 ENE FAT 15 W SVE 40 SE MHS 30 E EKA 30 SE CEC
   50 ESE OTH 45 W RDM 35 W PUW 50 E 63S 40 WNW FCA 35 WNW GTF 25 WNW
   3HT 50 NNE BIL 50 SSW OLF ISN 25 NNW MOT 50 WNW DVL 45 WNW JMS 35
   ENE 81V 55 WNW CDR 15 S AIA 10 SSE LBF 35 NE HLC 25 SW RSL 30 SSW
   LBL 35 NNE PVW 30 NNE BGS 45 NW LRD.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S TLH 35 WSW ABY
   30 E LGC 10 WNW AHN CLT 60 SSW RIC 30 ESE SBY.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
   AND ERN NC DURING THE DAY.  AN INFLUX OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR IN
   ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
   FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG
   ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO
   OR TWO...AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS. STILL...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
   BE WEAKENING WITH TIME ACROSS ERN NC AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
   PARTICULARLY STRONG...SO THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE
   TOO MARGINAL FOR A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.
   
   ELSEWHERE...A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST WITH THE STRONGER NRN
   STREAM EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER CANADA AND NRN NEW ENGLAND...AND A
   WEAKER SUBTROPICAL STREAM INVOF THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER.  WITHIN THE
   SRN STREAM...THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN AMPLIFYING MID
   LEVEL TROUGH OVER SRN CA/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.  L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE
   WILL BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT PERSISTENT ASCENT
   AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTENING NEAR THE RIM IN AZ SHOULD
   SUPPORT SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY TOMORROW EVENING. 
   WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT THIS AREA. 
   OTHER MORE ISOLATED /MAINLY DIURNAL/ THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   STEEP L0W-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK BUOYANCY.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 09/27/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z