Nov-16-2004 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 16 06:40:35 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20041116 0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Graphic
20041116 0800 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 160636
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2004
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW DRT 50 NNW BGS
   30 NE TCC 40 ENE LAA 45 WNW BIE 15 NW FNB FLV 10 W EMP 50 SSE PNC 25
   ENE DUA 15 ESE POE 15 SE 7R4.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IMPULSES WITHIN MODERATELY FAST NRN STREAM FLOW WILL REMAIN
   PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE NRN STATES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
   STRONGER IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY.
   A BLOCKY SRN STREAM WILL FEATURE A STRONG RIDGE SPANNING THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE TX BIG
   BEND. TX UPPER LOW IS FCST TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG
   DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL
   SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND TX GULF COAST ON
   WEDNESDAY.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST TX...
   A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF STRONG ASCENT DUE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL
   DPVA AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE WILL MAINTAIN A FEW BANDS
   AND CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN TX THROUGH
   WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY STRONG
   FORCING AND LOW STATIC STABILITY AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
   AND UPPER LOW. A COUPLE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE
   UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
   
   AXIS OF STRONGEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
   DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SPREAD EAST TOWARD THE GULF COAST AND ATOP
   INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
   WHILE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE FCST TO REMAIN WEAK AS THE LARGE
   SCALE SYSTEM OPENS UP...CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE AND
   POCKETS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE-BASED
   INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. POTENTIAL FOR GREATER LOW
   LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT MAY DEVELOP
   NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COASTAL FRONT. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...A
   LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO HAZARD MAY EVOLVE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST TX
   COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/16/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z