SPC AC 160636
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2004
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW DRT 50 NNW BGS
30 NE TCC 40 ENE LAA 45 WNW BIE 15 NW FNB FLV 10 W EMP 50 SSE PNC 25
ENE DUA 15 ESE POE 15 SE 7R4.
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IMPULSES WITHIN MODERATELY FAST NRN STREAM FLOW WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE NRN STATES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
STRONGER IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY.
A BLOCKY SRN STREAM WILL FEATURE A STRONG RIDGE SPANNING THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE TX BIG
BEND. TX UPPER LOW IS FCST TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND TX GULF COAST ON
WEDNESDAY.
...SOUTHEAST TX...
A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF STRONG ASCENT DUE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL
DPVA AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE WILL MAINTAIN A FEW BANDS
AND CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN TX THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY STRONG
FORCING AND LOW STATIC STABILITY AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
AND UPPER LOW. A COUPLE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AXIS OF STRONGEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SPREAD EAST TOWARD THE GULF COAST AND ATOP
INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE FCST TO REMAIN WEAK AS THE LARGE
SCALE SYSTEM OPENS UP...CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE AND
POCKETS OF DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. POTENTIAL FOR GREATER LOW
LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT MAY DEVELOP
NEAR WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COASTAL FRONT. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...A
LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO HAZARD MAY EVOLVE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST TX
COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
..CARBIN.. 11/16/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
|