SPC AC 171717
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 AM CST WED NOV 17 2004
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BRO 50 NNW MFE
   35 NNE LRD CLL 45 SSW TYR ADM OKC END RSL HLC MCK BBW OFK 40 NNE DSM
   35 SE CID BRL IRK 45 S P35 50 SW SZL SGF 60 WSW ARG UOX MEI 30 S
   MOB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SUN TWF 35 SSE OWY 75
   SE 4LW BNO 35 NNW BKE S80 35 W 27U SUN.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY THIS
   PERIOD...AS SPLIT FLOW REGIME EVOLVES TOWARD ONE OF BROADLY CYCLONIC
   FLOW OVER MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL CONUS.  SRN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL
   CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NW TX -- IS
   EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH...DEAMPLIFY...AND EJECT
   NEWD ACROSS MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY.  ANOTHER
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT OFFSHORE SRN CA WILL MOVE EWD OVER AZ
   AND SRN NM...WHILE SEPARATE PERTURBATION DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CO
   AND PORTIONS NEB/WRN KS.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY
   INDICATED ABOUT 350 NM W OF VANCOUVER ISLAND SHOULD AMPLIFY FURTHER
   AS IT MOVES INLAND PACIFIC NW...AND CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH STEEPENING OF
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATED TSTM POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
   OVER PORTIONS ID/ORE.
   
   AT SFC...OCCLUDED LOW NOW ANALYZED OVER TX PANHANDLE SHOULD WEAKEN
   IN FAVOR OF ANOTHER CYCLONE FORMING FARTHER SW ALONG OCCLUDED
   FRONT...INVOF SRN OK.  THIS LOW SHOULD LIFT NEWD TOWARD SERN KS/SWRN
   MO...OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SEWD TOWARD EXTREME SE TX AND SWRN LA.
    SFC MARINE/WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER HOU AREA AND OFFSHORE LA
   COAST -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD...SPREADING SFC BASED
   BUOYANCY INTO PORTIONS SRN LA FROM W-E DURING PERIOD.  COLD FRONT
   SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER TX COASTAL PLAIN.
   
   ...MS DELTA/LA GULF COAST REGION...
   SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD AFFECT AREA THROUGH PERIOD...COVERAGE
   GENERALLY DECREASING NWD AND MAXIMIZED INVOF SFC OCCLUDED/COLD
   FRONT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE E OF
   COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE...INVOF WARM FRONT...HOWEVER THESE MAY
   RESULT IN SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL.
   
   LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST
   MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SMALL SUPERCELLS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
   PAST...WITH ASSOCIATED 35-45 KT 500 MB SPEED MAX.  LOW LEVEL FLOW
   WILL BE MOST STRONGLY BACKED ALONG WARM FRONT...WITH ELY FLOW
   COMPONENT ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS.  BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED BY DEEP
   LAYER OF LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC...THOUGH
   ANY POCKETS OF DIURNAL SFC HEATING WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY LOCALLY.
    A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR AND OUTLOOK COULD BE UPGRADED
   CATEGORICALLY ONCE PERTINENT MESOSCALE PROCESSES ARE BETTER DEFINED.
   
   
   COLD FRONT OVER S TX MAY BE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TSTMS AS WELL...BUT
   WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY NE OF AREA...
   AND LITTLE OR NO LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
   STRONGLY CONDITIONAL TO WARRANT PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/17/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z