SPC AC 030926
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0326 AM CST TUE FEB 03 2004
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
   CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THURSDAY AS
   LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET LIFT NEWD
   TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE TRAILING SYSTEM DIGS SEWD INTO THE
   SRN PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER
   DEFINED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND SHIFT ACROSS THE
   LOW MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS/CENTRAL GULF COAST
   EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD DEVELOP AND LIFT
   NEWD ALONG THIS FRONT INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
   BROAD REGION OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE WRN GULF OF
   MEXICO...WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  BY EARLY
   THURSDAY EVENING...DEEP CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
   BEGIN SHIFTING THIS BAND OF CONVECTION EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
   COAST STATES OVERNIGHT.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH
   THE PERIOD...AND MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...
   INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE
   PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS.  SRN PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
   ACROSS MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
   OVERNIGHT AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SUSTAINS A FEED OF MODIFIED GULF
   MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST.  THUS...WILL FORECAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF
   SEVERE WIND AND/OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVER THIS REGION. 
   HOWEVER...FORECAST OF VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS CATEGORICAL
   SEVERE OUTLOOK NOT NECESSARY ATTM.
   
   ..EVANS.. 02/03/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z