Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
 
   

Search SPC
 

Feb-22-2004 1200 UTC Day 3 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
1200 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
      
Probabilistic Graphic (more info)
1200 Day 3 Prob Graphic
(Select thumbnail to view full image)
   SPC AC 221058
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2004
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG SRN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM W TX EARLY
   IN THE PERIOD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
   CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...
   THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR INLAND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL
   OCCUR ACROSS THE LA/MS AREA.  DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...
   AT LEAST A NARROW PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SPREAD INLAND
   ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST.  DESTABILIZATION IS ALSO EXPECTED
   FARTHER E ALONG THE NE GULF COAST...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
   MODULATED STRONGLY BY THE IMPACTS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
   FROM DAY 2 INTO DAY 3.
   
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD NEAR THE SURFACE
   LOW...AND PERHAPS AS FAR W AS SE TX IN PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL
   COLD POOL WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
   FARTHER E...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES WILL
   DEPEND LARGELY ON THE WARM SECTOR SPREADING INLAND.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 02/22/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z
        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home