SPC AC 221058
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2004
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST....
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SRN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM W TX EARLY
IN THE PERIOD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...
THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR INLAND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE LA/MS AREA. DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...
AT LEAST A NARROW PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SPREAD INLAND
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST. DESTABILIZATION IS ALSO EXPECTED
FARTHER E ALONG THE NE GULF COAST...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
MODULATED STRONGLY BY THE IMPACTS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM DAY 2 INTO DAY 3.
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...AND PERHAPS AS FAR W AS SE TX IN PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL
COLD POOL WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
FARTHER E...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON THE WARM SECTOR SPREADING INLAND.
..THOMPSON.. 02/22/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z
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