SPC AC 070903
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0403 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2004
   
   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NORTHEAST...
   REMNANTS OF FRANCES WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE AND CONTINUE LIFTING
   NNEWD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS AND POSSIBLY INTO WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND
   THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS SYSTEM PHASES WITH NRN STREAM. GFS
   SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON FRANCES THAN THE ETA AND EXPECT
   INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO OVERSPREAD THE MID ATLANTIC AND
   MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF SURFACE
   LOW CENTER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT A MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH SURFACE DEW
   POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S LOWERING LCLS. IN
   ADDITION...REGION WILL BE OVERSPREAD BY FAIRLY STRONG SLY LLJ. 
   THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF A FEW LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY
   TORNADOES IS EXPECTED. PRIMARY QUESTIONS FOR OVERALL SEVERE THEAT
   ARE THE EXPECTED LIMITED INSTABILITY/HEATING WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND
   CONFIDENCE IN MODEL HANDLING OF T.C. FRANCES THIS FAR OUT.  WILL
   THEREFORE OPT TO ONLY INCLUDE LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   BOTH ETA AND GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SURFACE LOW AND
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO WRN/CENTRAL ND LATE IN THE DAY
   WHICH WILL SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS FAST MOVING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE NRN PLAINS. THOUGH STRENGTHENING
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG NOSE 40+ KT WLY H5 FLOW AND INCREASING ASCENT
   WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION LATE IN
   THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY DUE TO LIMITED
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUSTIFIES FORECAST OF ONLY LOW SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ..EVANS.. 09/07/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1100Z