Sep- 8-2004 1100 UTC Day 3 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 8 08:52:32 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20040908 1100 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Graphic
20040908 1100 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 080845
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 AM CDT WED SEP 08 2004
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...WITH BOTH ETA AND GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. 
   THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO AID IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ALONG SSEWD
   MOVING COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 
   APPEARS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS MAY BECOME QUITE WARM WITH SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER PORTIONS OF
   CENTRAL/WRN NEB INTO SD.  THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A DEEPLY MIXED
   AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
   50S RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS HEATING WILL LIKELY MIX
   THROUGH CAP AND ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM
   WRN NEB INTO CENTRAL/ERN DAKOTAS LATE IN THE DAY.  OTHER STORMS MAY
   DEVELOP INTO ERN ND/NRN MN INVOF STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF
   APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS
   AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS...AND WILL THEREFORE FORECAST
   LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE IN THE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   ..EVANS.. 09/08/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1100Z