SPC AC 140757
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
REGION...
...AL/GA...
HURRICANE IVAN IS FORECAST TO BE ONSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHERN AL/FL...AND SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AL DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE NEAR OUTER BANDS THAT AFFECT MUCH
OF AL AND WESTERN GA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
...OH/PA/NY...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
PARTS OF WESTERN NY/PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LIMITING INSTABILITY TO MARGINAL VALUES /GENERALLY LESS THAN
1000 J/KG/. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND FRONTAL FORCING MAY
RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.
..HART.. 09/14/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1100Z
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