Sep-14-2004 1100 UTC Day 3 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 14 08:04:26 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20040914 1100 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Graphic
20040914 1100 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 140757
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
   REGION...
   
   ...AL/GA...
   HURRICANE IVAN IS FORECAST TO BE ONSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER
   SOUTHERN AL/FL...AND SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
   AL DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.  STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE NEAR OUTER BANDS THAT AFFECT MUCH
   OF AL AND WESTERN GA.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   ...OH/PA/NY...
   STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
   QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
   PARTS OF WESTERN NY/PA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WARM TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT...LIMITING INSTABILITY TO MARGINAL VALUES /GENERALLY LESS THAN
   1000 J/KG/.  HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND FRONTAL FORCING MAY
   RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF
   GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..HART.. 09/14/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1100Z