SPC AC 020822
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 AM CST THU DEC 02 2004
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   AFTER SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   ...LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT INCREASING
   POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...MAINLY TOWARD THE END OF THIS
   FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND.  MODELS INDICATE IMPULSE...EMBEDDED
   WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES...WILL
   ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROADER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
   SOUTHWESTERN STATES SATURDAY.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS
   UPPER JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
   INTO THE PACIFIC COAST.
   
   CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE
   AMPLITUDE AND RATE OF PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES.  HOWEVER...
   LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL FAVOR STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME
   ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. 
   FURTHERMORE...AS HIGH-LEVEL JET NOSES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
   NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU...MID-LEVEL MOIST PLUME EMANATING FROM THE
   SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
   AREAS.
   
   STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS GULF COASTAL AREAS LATE FRIDAY
   INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARD TO
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  INITIALLY POOR
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS WILL
   NOT HELP EITHER.  HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST MODIFICATION OF
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE
   SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
   THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  
   
   SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS
   ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S...AND NORTHWARD
   ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THIS AIR MASS WILL BECOME ENHANCED BY
   STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
   INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK
   CAPE...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BASED ABOVE
   SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER. HOWEVER...RISK FOR SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MINIMAL AT THE PRESENT TIME.
   
   ..KERR.. 12/02/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z