Jan-15-2005 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 15 05:29:53 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050115 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20050115 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050115 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20050115 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 150523
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 PM CST FRI JAN 14 2005
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E EYW 45 W PBI 10
   NNE MLB.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY AND MIDWEST...COUPLED WITH A MORE SUBTLE SRN STREAM JET MAX
   MOVING FROM TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN LARGE
   SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO
   THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
   INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN AREAS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
   CONUS LAND AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COLD AND DRY AIR
   MASS...SEGMENTS OF THE MOST RECENT POLAR FRONT HAVE STALLED ACROSS
   SRN FL WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
   PERSIST TODAY.
   
   ...SERN FL...
   WEAK SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
   DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW WILL AID LIFT/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED
   FRONT OVER SRN FL DURING THE DAY. WHILE RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES ACT TO INITIALLY LIMIT CAPE/INSTABILITY OVER THE
   REGION...AFTERNOON HEATING AND GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A
   FEW TSTMS FORMING NEAR A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE BEFORE SYSTEM MOVES
   EAST. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED BY
   MEAGER STORM UPDRAFTS AND MARGINAL SHEAR.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 01/15/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z