Feb- 4-2005 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 4 19:36:07 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050204 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050204 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050204 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050204 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 041930
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 PM CST FRI FEB 04 2005
   
   VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW FCA 50 NW S06
   45 WNW GEG 45 NW EAT 25 E OLM 25 S HQM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 55 NW TUS 50
   W SAD 45 WNW SVC 15 NW DMN 40 W ELP.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...PAC NW...
   VSBL SATL SHOWS CONVECTION INCREASING/MOVING ONSHORE WITH TALLEST
   CLOUDS VCNTY OLYMPICS AND IN THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE. 
   THERMODYNAMICS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD TSTMS AS COLD
   POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES
   ACROSS THE REGION.  TSTM RISK WILL SPREAD EWD ALONG THE CANADIAN
   BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL END FROM WEST-EAST LATER
   TONIGHT AS WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES. 
   
   ...SWRN STATES...
   UPPER LOW VCNTY BAJA SPUR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. 
   WARM CONVEYOR IS TRANSPORTING MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO AZ/NM
   WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BECOMING EVIDENT...PRIMARILY SOUTH
   OF THE AZ BORDER.  AS MOISTENING CONTINUES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   SPREADS ENEWD THROUGH SONORA...ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN WEAKLY
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  HIGHER THREATS FOR TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
   OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/04/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z