Feb- 5-2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 5 15:44:07 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050205 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050205 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050205 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050205 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 051539
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0939 AM CST SAT FEB 05 2005
   
   VALID 051630Z - 061200Z.
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF BAJA IN THE PROCESS OF BEING
   KICKED NEWD AS TROUGH  MOVES ACROSS NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN PLAINS BY
   TONIGHT.  UPPER LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH AND BY 12Z SUNDAY WILL BE
   MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS.
   
   WHILE EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NEWD AHEAD
   OF UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE TROPICAL ERN PAC...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
   IS AVAILABLE E OF SIERRA MADRES IN MEXICO. A VERY COOL/STABLE RETURN
   FLOW OFF WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE NO SUPPORT FOR ANY
   CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH
   APPROACHES SRN PLAINS TONIGHT.
   
   OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES EMBEDDED IN
   THE DEEP MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NEWD ACROSS MEXICO INTO SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS MINIMAL THRU
   TONIGHT.
   
   AS A RESULT HAVE DROPPED THE EARLIER THUNDER FORECAST AS ANY
   LIGHTNING SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE REQUIRED 10 PERCENT COVERAGE.
   
   ..HALES.. 02/05/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z