SPC AC 070556
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1156 PM CST SUN FEB 06 2005
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S U17 20 NE SGU 25
   N P38 50 W ELY 25 S EKO 40 WNW ENV 35 N ENV 10 WNW OGD 50 W RKS 25
   NE RKS RWL 45 W LAR 45 NW 4FC 20 NNW GUC 15 WNW CEZ 35 S U17.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S CRP 15 NW CRP 40
   SSE AUS 45 SW PRX 25 SE UMN ALN 30 W MIE 15 NNW DAY 50 SSW CMH 30
   WSW HTS 40 ESE LOZ 10 SSE CHA 15 SW BHM 50 ESE MEI 25 NNE BVE 15 SW
   BVE.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
   A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE SWRN
   US TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
   REACHING TX LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A DRY PUNCH LOCATED ACROSS WCNTRL TX. THIS
   FEATURE WILL MOVE ENEWD INTO AR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
   MOVES SEWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS. AS A
   RESULT...PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPS WITH THE
   APPROACH OF THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
   FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION NEAR THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON. THE ETA AND
   GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY BUT
   THE ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z IN CNTRL AR SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF
   1000-1500 J/KG. IF THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH THE APPROACH
   OF THE TROUGH WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT
   THIS AFTERNOON. A MARGINAL HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD EXIST
   AS STORMS DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT IN ERN AR...WRN TN
   AND NW MS LATER TODAY. THE STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN
   AFTER DARK. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE
   OH VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
   NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY.
   
   ELSEWHERE...COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
   UPPER-TROUGH AND WARMING SFC TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT IN THE MTNS OF UT AND WRN CO BY AFTERNOON. ANY
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS INSTABILITY
   DECREASES AFTER DARK.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 02/07/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z