Feb-14-2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 14 16:28:07 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050214 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050214 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050214 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050214 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 141623
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1023 AM CST MON FEB 14 2005
   
   VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DAB 35 N PIE
   ...CONT... PFN 20 SE DHN 10 WSW CSG 30 ENE ATL 35 ESE AHN 20 WNW CAE
   30 NNW FLO 25 SSE RDU 50 NE RWI 20 ENE ECG.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SE ATLANTIC STATES...
   A MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES WILL MOVE
   EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND GRADUALLY LOSE AMPLITUDE THROUGH
   TONIGHT.  WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS
   TROUGH MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GA/N FL TODAY...AND
   THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  MINIMAL
   INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT.
   
   ...CA AREA...
   A SRN STREAM MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 37 N AND 131 W HAS SLOWED
   APPRECIABLY IN ITS EWD MOVEMENT THE PAST 12 HOURS AS PART OF A
   DEVELOPING REX BLOCK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ERN PACIFIC.  WITH
   LITTLE EWD MOVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW...THE MID LEVEL COLD
   POOL AND STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...AS WILL THE
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ...MT AREA...
   FINALLY...A LOW AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD
   OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS.  REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS
   REVEAL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW
   SHOWERS...BUT ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO
   JUSTIFY A THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 02/14/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z