Feb-18-2005 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 18 12:36:00 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050218 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050218 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050218 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050218 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 181232
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0632 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2005
   
   VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UKI 10 S RBL
   TPH MLF 4BL LVS CNM 30 SSW P07.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA
   COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER JET EXTENDING ACROSS BAJA CA INTO TX/NM. 
   MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER FEATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
   STATIONARY TODAY.  THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A RISK OF SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
   
   STRONG ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ANTECEDENT MOIST CONDITIONS ARE
   AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS OVER THE CENTRAL
   VALLEY OF CA.  OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS APPEAR POSSIBLE TODAY
   OVER THIS REGION...PROVIDING MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES
   AROUND 500 J/KG/.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT COMBINATION OF
   COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT CAPE MAY POSE A RISK OF
   HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS TODAY OVER CENTRAL CA.  ORGANIZED
   SEVERE ACTIVITY APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..HART.. 02/18/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z