Feb-18-2005 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 18 19:39:59 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050218 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050218 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050218 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050218 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 181936
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0136 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2005
   
   VALID 182000Z - 191200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW UKI 10 S RBL
   TPH MLF 4BL LVS 20 NW INK 30 SSW P07.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...CA...
   LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
   THICKER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD HAS SHIFTED INLAND...
   ALLOWING A 70-80 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM VBG/OXR NWD TO SFO TO
   RECEIVE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING. WHEN COUPLED WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...AIR MASS HAS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
   EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT FROM THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL NEWD ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
   AREA AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   /CURRENTLY NEAR 30N AND 125W/ BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD. GIVEN THE STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...POTENTIAL FOR SOME
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH
   MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION.
   
   ..MEAD.. 02/18/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z