Feb-26-2005 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 26 12:56:17 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050226 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050226 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050226 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050226 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 261251
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0651 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2005
   
   VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT SEP PRX ELD 45
   ESE LUL 15 SSE AQQ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW FHU GBN 50 WSW
   EED BIH 35 E SAC SVE 15 ENE LOL 60 E ELY 45 S VEL 10 WNW 4FC 45 W
   PUB 10 N 4SL 4CR CNM 65 SSW P07.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS
   PERIOD.  THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS
   CONCERNED WILL BE SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW CROSSING BAJA CA.  THIS
   DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE MORE STRONGLY AMPLIFIED THAN PROGGED IN
   THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA...A FACTOR WHICH MAY AFFECT SEVERE
   POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD.  
   
   AT THE SURFACE...WRN PART OF FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE CNTRL GULF OF
   MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA YESTERDAY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
   THE WRN GULF.  AS BAJA SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD LATER TODAY...EXPECT
   THAT BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT.  IT SHOULD
   REACH THE NRN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
   CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE S OF BVE/MOB.  FARTHER W...AN INVERTED TROUGH
   MAY FORM IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE FLUXES OVER THE NW
   CORNER OF THE GULF.
   
   ...TX/LA...
   EXPECT RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING BAJA UPPER SYSTEM TO
   EXPAND NWD AND EWD ACROSS TX AND THE NW GULF CSTL REGION LATER
   TODAY. RAIN FALLING INTO EXISTING CP BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL
   LIKELY INHIBIT ONSHORE AIR MASS RECOVERY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  BUT
   GRADUAL STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM W TO E...ALONG WITH
   PERSISTENT ELEVATED MOISTURE INFLUX AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED
   BY UPPER IMPULSE...SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED CONVECTION/SCATTERED
   THUNDER FROM S TX EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF CST STATES LATER TODAY
   THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
   PROBABLY REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL OR DAMAGING
   SURFACE WIND.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 02/26/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z