Mar-30-2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 30 16:04:12 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050330 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050330 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050330 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050330 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 301601
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1001 AM CST WED MAR 30 2005
   
   VALID 301630Z - 311200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE
   AZO 10 ESE MIE 10 WNW SDF 20 WSW BNA 15 NNW MSL 25 S TUP 30 SSW UOX
   MEM 20 SE CGI 25 SE BLV 20 N ALN 35 SSW UIN 25 E DSM 35 WSW ALO 55
   NE ALO 25 NNW MSN 15 N MKE 20 NNE BEH 45 SSE AZO.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
   CLE 30 SW CAK 25 WNW UNI 30 NW CSV 15 NE ANB 10 SW TOI 40 ENE MOB 40
   WNW MOB 25 SSW JAN 30 S GLH 50 WSW MEM 20 ENE ARG 30 ENE VIH 25 SSE
   P35 15 ENE OMA 35 WSW SPW 45 WNW EAU 10 W ESC 35 E PLN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW 7R4 40 S ELD 40
   NE LIT 20 ESE UNO TBN SZL 20 NNE BIE 20 NE OFK 30 N AXN 25 E INL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW MOT 50 S Y22 35
   NW PHP 40 W MHN 20 SW MCK 10 E P28 15 S PNC 35 N ADM 30 NW LTS 30
   ENE ABQ 45 NNW GUP 35 ESE SLC 10 NE BYI 30 ESE S80 40 NNE 63S.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE ERI 15 SSW CRW
   35 NW AGS 15 NNW AQQ.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
   ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...MUCH OF IL...MUCH OF
   IND...WESTERN KY AND NORTHERN MS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS/OH
   VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES REGION...
   
   POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEB/KS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
   TODAY ACROSS MO/IA AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. 
   MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW NOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN IA WILL MOVE
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO WRN WI TONIGHT..WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING
   EASTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. 
   THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TWO AREAS OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  ONE AREA ACROSS PARTS OF IA/SRN
   MN/IL/WI/NORTHERN IND. THE SECOND AREA FROM SOUTHERN IND INTO
   NORTHERN MS.
   
   ...IA/MN/WI/IL/NRN IND...
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WRN IA WILL INCREASE AND
   INTENSIFY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH
   EXTENDS FROM WRN IA INTO NWRN MO. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   PREVAIL OVER THIS REGION...WITH SIGNIFICANT DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER
   DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS.  AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOWER/MID 50S AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -20C WILL COMBINE FOR MODERATE
   INSTABILITY /SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. IN ADDITION TO
   FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
   SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION IN EXIT REGION OF 70-80 KNOT MID
   LEVEL JET.  SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS APPEAR LIKELY...ORGANIZING INTO BROKEN LINES OF SEVERE STORMS
   AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI.  DURING
   AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE RAPIDLY NEWD INTO
   CENTRAL IL/WRN IN POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BE ON THE
   INCREASE.
   
   ...SRN IND/WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS...
   CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 60F SPREADING
   NEWD ACROSS AR WITH MID 60S OVER SOUTHEAST TX. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
   LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TRANSPORT THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
    DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE LIKELY TO MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
   WESTERN KY/TN AFTER DARK THIS EVENING. CORE OF 80 KT MID LEVEL
   SPEED MAX WILL NOSE ACROSS THIS AREA AROUND THAT TIME...WITH LOW
   LEVEL JET BECOMING MORE DEFINED.  MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS REGION AFTER 00Z. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP
   LAPSE RATES...AND A WEAK CAP.  ALSO...LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  IF MOISTURE RETURN IS AS
   STRONG AS EXPECTED...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL
   ALSO EXIST IN THIS AREA.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD
   WITH TIME ACROSS EASTERN MS AND MUCH OF AL.
   
   ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 03/30/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z