SPC AC 021241
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0641 AM CST SAT APR 02 2005
   
   VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
   CRE 25 S RDU 25 SSE LYH 30 SE HGR 20 SSW ABE 10 ENE ACY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW CTY 50 ESE VLD
   45 NE AYS 45 SSE AGS 40 SSE AND 30 SSW AVL 10 N HSS 30 NNE JKL 35
   SSW CMH 35 NNW CMH 35 NNW MFD ...CONT... MSS 25 WNW RUT 20 NW EEN 20
   NNE BOS.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE
   BAY REGION/SRN NJ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PHASING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES HAVE RESULTED IN STRONG CLOSED LOW NOW
   CENTERED OVER N CNTRL KY.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
   IT TRACKS ALONG AN ARCING PATH ACROSS WRN NC AND REACHES SE PA BY
   12Z SUNDAY.  TRIPLE POINT LOW NOW DEVELOPING IN SW VA SHOULD BECOME
   THE MAIN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION.  THE LOW WILL LIKELY DRIFT
   SLOWLY NNE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES AND TRAILING
   COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NC/SRN DELMARVA CST.
   
   ...ERN CAROLINAS TO SRN MID ATLANTIC REGION...
   STRONG PRESSURE FALLS NOW OCCURRING OVER VA/MD AND PA EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL
   NWD BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS PARTS OF VA/MD...DE
   ...NJ AND SE PA.  AT THE SAME TIME...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL AS
   LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT NOW OVER WRN NC AND SW VA
   LIFTS NEWD.  COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN EXIT
   REGION OF 100 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ON ERN SIDE OF UPPER
   LOW...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MODEST
   INSTABILITY...WITH AVERAGE SBCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 500 J/KG.
   
   RECENT INCREASE IN CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING OVER N CNTRL NC/WRN VA
   IS PROBABLY START OF WHAT WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF MAINLY
   LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE EPISODES ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  OTHER
   STORMS MAY SPREAD NWD ALONG AXIS OF PREFRONTAL VEERING INTO ERN
   NC/SE VA...WHERE HIGHER THETA-E AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING
   MAY BOOST CAPE TO 1000 J/KG.
   
   GIVEN STRENGTH OF S TO SSWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR /AOA 60 KTS/ AND
   INCREASING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/BANDS
   WILL LIKELY CONTAIN EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY
   IN SRN/ERN VA. WHILE THE RISK IN THE CAROLINAS SHOULD END BY
   18-19Z...DEVELOPING NEGATIVE TILT OF UPPER SYSTEM AND CONTINUED
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/LARGE SCALE ASCENT COULD ALLOW SEVERE
   THREAT TO PERSIST UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR ERN
   VA...ERN MD...DE...SRN NJ AND PERHAPS EXTREME SE PA.  POST FRONTAL
   THUNDER MAY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT OVER PA/NJ.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN FL...
   A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY AFFECT CNTRL AND SRN FL THROUGH MID
   AFTERNOON...WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK BUT 50+ KT
   WSWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST INVOF COLD FRONT.  LIMITED DEGREE
   OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/02/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z