Apr- 5-2005 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Apr 5 12:54:06 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050405 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050405 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050405 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050405 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 051250
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0750 AM CDT TUE APR 05 2005
   
   VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
   OKC 10 SE GAG 15 SE GCK 25 WNW HLC BBW 20 W FSD 20 SSE OTG 30 ENE
   OMA 35 SSE P35 30 SE VIH 35 NNW MEM 25 SW TUP 30 E JAN 35 NNW BTR 35
   SW POE 55 NE CLL 40 ENE ACT 25 NNE OKC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ROC 30 WSW BFD
   10 SW FDY 25 NW IND 50 NNW EVV 25 SE CKV 20 W GAD 30 WNW PFN
   ...CONT... 20 SSW PSX 35 SSE AUS 15 NNW TPL 25 NNW DAL 35 WNW ADM 25
   N LTS 45 N AMA 55 NNE CAO 50 SW MHN 40 WSW 9V9 30 ESE DVL 60 W RRT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
   PLNS AND LWR MS VLY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXITING NE NM WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY E
   OR PERHAPS ESE INTO WRN OK LATER TODAY.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE
   TUL AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING MORE OR LESS VERTICALLY STACKED
   WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW OVER SW KS.
   
   DEEP PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE ENTERED WRN OK AND SHOULD
   SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE BY
   18Z AND THE AR BORDER BY EARLY EVENING.  BUT LEE TROUGHING AND
   SLOWER MOTION OF UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
   SEPARATE WIND SHIFT LINE/COLD FRONT CLOSER TO UPPER LOW CENTER OVER
   WRN OK LATER IN THE DAY.  FARTHER N...COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
   INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM KS SURFACE LOW INTO NEB/SE SD
   SHOULD EDGE SLOWLY E/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...SRN PLNS INTO OZARKS/ARKLATEX...
   PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD N INTO SLIGHT
   RISK AREA AHEAD OF SRN PLNS SURFACE LOW.  WHILE LOW LEVEL JET IS
   STRONG...UPSTREAM AIR MASS IN THE WRN GULF REMAINS ONLY PARTIALLY
   MODIFIED.  THUS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE VALUES WILL ONLY GRADUALLY
   INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW...SURFACE
   HEATING AND C0OLING/UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC FRONT WILL RESULT
   IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE DESTABILIZATION TODAY...WITH AVERAGE SBCAPE
   EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG IN A NARROW AXIS FROM S
   CNTRL AND ERN NEB S/SEWD INTO PARTS OF KS/ERN OK AND ERN TX BY MID
   AFTERNOON.
   
   APPROACH OF STRONG...LARGELY LINEAR AXIS OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS N OF
   KS SURFACE LOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...
   EXPECTED THAT THE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY OVERCOME STOUT CAP AND
   BUILD SEWD ALONG PACIFIC FRONT INTO ERN OK/NE TX.  OTHER STORMS WILL
   ALSO FORM NWD ALONG INVERTED TROUGH INTO NEB/SE SD...AND S ALONG
   SECONDARY COLD FRONT INTO NW OK.
   
   THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG OVER MUCH OF SLIGHT
   RISK AREA...BUT THE MOST FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR LONG-LIVED
   SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST OVER SE OK AND THE ARKLATEX REGION.  FARTHER
   N...MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BACK AND WEAKEN WITH TIME AS UPPER
   LOW CONTINUES EWD.
   
   THE INITIAL STORMS IN KS AND NEB MAY YIELD HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WIND GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR.  THIS
   ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO SHORT
   LINES/BANDS WITH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT.  ONE OR TWO
   TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING EARLY STAGES OF CELL
   DEVELOPMENT IN KS.
   
   A THREAT FOR SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER MAY EVOLVE
   OVER SE OK AND THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS SPEED MAX
   NOW ENTERING WRN NM REDEVELOPS E ACROSS TX AND ENHANCES DEEP SHEAR/
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT.  GIVEN COMPARATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER N...AND MORE FAVORABLE DEEP WIND
   PROFILES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A COUPLE LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS
   ON THE SRN END OF CONVECTIVE BAND EXPECTED TO FORM IN ERN OK.  THESE
   STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND TORNADOES. THE SEVERE
   THREAT COULD REACH PARTS OF MS BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.
   
   ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 04/05/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z