SPC AC 091627
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT SAT APR 09 2005
   
   VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE
   HLC 10 SW GLD 25 SSE AKO 20 SSW SNY 35 SW MHN 35 NE ANW 15 ENE ATY
   15 NNW RWF FRM 50 WSW FOD 25 SW OMA 35 NE HLC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ELO 65 NNE EAU
   30 ESE CID 25 ESE IRK 25 WSW SZL 10 SSE SLN 45 N DDC 25 NE EHA 20
   NNW CAO 15 NNE SAF 50 SSW SOW 45 WNW PHX 30 E EED 35 SSW P38 60 E
   ELY 45 SSE TWF 15 S COD WRL 65 SSE 81V 25 ENE CDR 35 W VTN 25 NE VTN
   25 NE 9V9 25 SE ABR 25 E JMS 35 N JMS 40 NNW BIS 35 SE ISN 15 NNE
   SDY 70 NNE OLF.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST CO INTO
   SOUTHWEST MN...
   
   LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS
   MORNING...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   ROTATING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
   INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...AIDING IN THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY.
   
   ...SERN WY/ERN CO/WRN NEB/NWRN KS THIS EVENING...
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THIS REGION
   THIS MORNING.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND EXTREMELY STEEP LOW/MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY DEEP MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
   SURFACE T-TD SPREADS OF 40-60F ACROSS EASTERN CO.  MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THIS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD
   EASTWARD.  INVERTED-V PROFILES MAY ALLOW LOCALIZED GUSTY/DAMAGING
   WINDS IN CONVECTIVE CELLS.  REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD
   EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS AFTER DARK...WHERE GREATER
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION.  LARGE
   HAIL WOULD THEN BECOME MORE OF A THREAT.
   
   ...CNTRL AND ERN NEB/SERN SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN TONIGHT...
   MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
   OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
    THIS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ALONG
   BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO SOUTHWEST MN.  SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AFTER DARK...AND MAY PERSIST
   MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ...TX PNHDL/WRN OK LATE TONIGHT...
   ETA/GFS/WRF MODEL RUNS ALL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH-BASED
   CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
   OK.  HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THIS AREA OUT OF GENERAL THUNDER RISK...DUE
   TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE...AND ANTICIPATED VERY LOW
   COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES.
   
   ..HART/JEWELL.. 04/09/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z