Apr-21-2005 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Thu Apr 21 19:52:20 UTC 2005 | |
Public Severe Weather Outlook | |
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The SPC is forecasting an outbreak of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across portions of the United States. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Please read the latest public statement about this event. |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
SPC AC 211949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MDH 10 NNW PAH 35 N GLH 25 NW TXK 15 NNW PRX 30 WNW MLC BVO EMP BIE LNK 30 WNW OMA DSM OTM 15 N ALN MDH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW LFK HDO SJT SPS OKC PNC 30 N CNK 10 SSE GRI 20 NNE BBW 55 SW YKN 45 W ALO 35 NE MLI 15 E MMO LAF IND BNA 35 ESE GWO 10 WNW MLU 50 SW LFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE P07 50 ENE BGS 30 WNW SPS 10 SE HUT EAR BBW MHN PHP ATY RWF JVL SBN CMH MGW MRB MRB 15 SE SBY ...CONT... 35 E EWN 50 SE CLT 10 S AGS 30 NNE MGR 10 SE AQQ ...CONT... 30 NNE BVE 35 SE MCB 15 ESE HEZ 45 SW POE 35 N NIR LRD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW PIE 10 WNW ORL 45 WNW PBI 30 NNE MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SEA YKM 35 SW LWS 35 SSW 27U 30 S MQM JAC LND RWL 35 NW VEL SLC 20 WSW TWF 80 SW BOI 65 N 4LW EUG 10 ESE AST 20 SSE SEA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SE NEB/SW IA/ERN KS/ERN OK/MUCH OF MO AND AR.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN PLAINS AND MID/LWR MS VLY.... STRETCHING SHEARING OF GREAT BASIN CIRCULATION CONTINUES...AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION IS PROPAGATING WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES... AROUND BASE OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. HOWEVER... PLAINS FEATURE WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT AS IT CONTRIBUTES TO INCREASING FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES...WHERE MOIST CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS EVOLVED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...** MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP/DEEPEN ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE SYSTEM ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...AHEAD OF NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MUCH WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE DOWNSTREAM HAS ALREADY WEAKENED INHIBITION ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARKS. VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WHEN STRENGTHENING WEST NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW FIELDS WILL ENHANCE FORWARD PROPAGATION AND MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACTIVITY COULD PROGRESS THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY/WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO ALREADY ONGOING NEAR CENTRAL NEBRASKA SURFACE LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT/WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR DRY LINE/FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY RAPID INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE EVENING...SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. IN THE MEANTIME...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG DRYLINE TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. MORE NOTABLE INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW/TOUGH BEGINS TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO EXTENSIVE BROKEN SQUALL LINE...WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...EASTERN GULF/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...** **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSIONS. ..KERR.. 04/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z