SPC AC 260451
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
   MLB SRQ ...CONT... 20 NE GLS 10 NNW GLH 40 SSW MKL 35 NNE MSL RMG
   ATL 60 SSW AGS SSI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ONP 35 ESE OLM 35 ENE
   BLI ...CONT... 50 NNE 4OM 35 WNW DLN 50 NNE BPI 35 S RKS 15 ENE U28
   30 WNW U17 35 E SGU 35 S U31 35 N RBL EKA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW MFE 15 ENE CRP
   ...CONT... 20 ENE PSX 20 SW LFK 20 E PRX 65 WNW ABI 40 W LBB 20 SW
   AMA 45 NNW CDS 35 WNW OKC 20 SSW BVO 10 WSW SZL 20 NNW BRL 20 SW RFD
   20 WSW FWA 25 W CMH 10 SE HLG 25 SE LBE 30 NE IPT 15 NE ISP.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY...THE
   DEEP SOUTH AND NRN FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VIGOROUS H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE FROM N TX EARLY
   TUE...ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY BY TUE AFTERNOON AND TO THE SERN STATES
   TUE EVENING.  AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE
   SEWD IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE A WARM FRONT TRANSLATES
   NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREA.  
   
   ...LWR MS VLY TO THE ERN GULF COASTAL AREA...
   RATHER COMPLEX CONVECTIVE FORECAST HAS UNFOLDED WITH MANY EVOLVING
   MESOSCALE DETAILS CONTRIBUTING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ATTM.
   
   LARGE SWATH OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN GULF
   COASTAL STATES WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A H5 JET AND THE
   APPROACHING N TX DISTURBANCE.  THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS/INCREASING
   TSTMS WITHIN THIS BROAD ZONE WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
   MOISTURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. BUT...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT AT
   LEAST LOWER 60S AS FAR NORTH AS SRN MS-SWRN GA BY LATE TUE
   MORNING...WITH 50S INTO CNTRL MS-WCNTRL GA. 
   
   TSTMS ARE APT TO BE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF CURRENT
   ZONE OF CONVECTION.  TSTMS SHOULD THEN MOVE ENEWD INTO SRN AL...SWRN
   GA AND NRN FL TUE AFTERNOON.  IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH HEATING WILL
   BE AVAILABLE ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS ZONE...BUT SUFFICIENT
   VERTICAL/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND
   DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD STORMS BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. 
   ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE MORE LINEARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
   AND MOVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL OVERNIGHT. 
   
   UPSTREAM...NUMEROUS ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO ONGOING
   TUE MORNING ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY REGION.  STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
   FEEDING FROM A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED FARTHER WEST AND
   STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. IF SUBSTANTIAL
   HEATING CAN OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING...RESIDUAL 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS
   BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
   ADDITIONAL...MORE SURFACE BASED TSTMS...ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY
   FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTMS SHOULD BE THE
   APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT CELLS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   AS WELL.  MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD AND TOWARD
   THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATER TUE EVENING.
   
   ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 04/26/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z