SPC AC 270044
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005
   
   VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 10
   ESE MLB ...CONT... 10 N PBI 35 S FMY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S MIA 40 WNW EYW
   ...CONT... 10 W BVE 20 WNW SEM 55 WSW LOZ 55 WNW HTS 10 ESE HTS 25
   SSW BLF 15 NNW GSO 50 WSW RIC 15 WSW ILG 15 NNE ACK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW FCA 15 W FCA 15
   WNW LVM 35 ESE EVW 25 N PUC 60 ESE SGU 15 SSW IGM 50 WNW EED 50 SSW
   SVE EKA ...CONT... 40 S ONP 15 NE DLS 45 NW 4OM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN
   FL...
   
   ...CNTRL FL...
   MESOANALYSIS PLACES A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS CNTRL
   FL...WITH THE STRONGEST ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF TSTMS APPROACHING
   WINTER HAVEN AND TAMPA BAY AT 0045Z.  THESE TSTMS ARE PROBABLY
   PARTIALLY ELEVATED AS EARLIER CONVECTION FORCED A COLD POOL AS FAR S
   AS THE VERO BEACH-FORT MYERS AREAS.  BUT...GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
   SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED.  IF THE STORMS CAN CONTINUE SWD TO THE
   SOUTHERNMOST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE AS
   STORMS HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ROOTING INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
   MOVING INTO THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL 4KM
   WRF MODEL SUGGESTS THAT LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION WILL INCREASE
   LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CNTRL AND PARTS OF SRN FL.  THUS...THE
   PROBABILITY OF TSTMS MAY INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06-09Z ACROSS CNTRL
   FL.  THE MAJORITY OF TSTMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED...THOUGH THE
   PROBABILITIES FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE HIGHER ALONG/S OF THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  IF THE LATTER SITUATION UNFOLDS...THERE WILL BE
   THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES.  AS A RESULT...WILL
   MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   THE 21Z RUC AND LATEST EXPERIMENTAL 4KM WRF SUGGEST THAT TSTMS MAY
   INCREASE ALONG/N OF A WEAK FRONT SITUATED FROM THE WRN FL PNHDL INTO
   SWRN GA IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME.  WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE SRN
   PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT LAKES CYCLONE APPARENTLY ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.  AIR MASS APPEARS TO HAVE NOT RECOVERED
   FROM EARLY DAY STORMS WITH 00Z TLH SOUNDING SHOWING H7-H5 LAPSE
   RATES OF 6.5 C/KM.  BUT...THE THREATS FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR
   HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND LOW PROBABILITIES
   WILL BE MAINTAINED.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/27/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z