Apr-30-2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 30 16:12:42 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050430 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050430 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050430 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050430 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 301608
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1108 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005
   
   VALID 301630Z - 011200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE
   DAB 50 N PIE ...CONT... 45 E 7R4 60 SW SEM 40 SE MCN 30 SSE CLT 10 N
   LYH 15 SSW NHK 10 ESE WAL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VRB 50 SSE
   FMY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MFE 30 ESE HDO
   15 N AUS 50 W LFK 30 NNW POE 20 NE HEZ 20 WNW BHM 40 NE TYS 35 SSE
   LBE 20 SE BFD 35 SSW UCA 20 ENE PSF BOS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE PDT 15 SW BOI
   50 WNW BPI 45 SW LAR 20 SSE DEN 20 ENE LHX 20 WNW LBL 55 E DHT 25 S
   DHT 50 SSE RTN 45 ESE DRO 15 WNW U17 65 NE TPH 30 WSW MHS 25 E CEC
   25 SSW SLE 35 NE PDX 30 ESE PDT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO
   THE EASTERN GULF COAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ERN U.S. WITH CIRCULATION CENTER
   REMAINING OVER NRN ONTARIO.  FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH IN STG WLYS
   CURRENTLY ERN TX WILL GRADUALLY DE AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD
   ACROSS GULF COAST STATES TO OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT.
   
   ACTIVE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS SWWD TO
   CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   WHILE SHEAR IS STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
   INCLUDING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...THE DIMINISHING AVAILABLE
   INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL TEMPER SOMEWHAT THE
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...
   
   REF MCD 724
   SQUALL LINE HAS MOSTLY WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW SEVERE LEVELS WRN
   CAROLINAS ATTM...BUT WITH HEATING AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION
   WIND DAMAGE THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS LINE CONTINUES EWD. WITH
   40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1000
   J/KG...ALONG WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   IS ALSO LIKELY.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF-SHORE AROUND 00Z
   ENDING SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA.
   
   ...GULF COAST...
   WRN EXTENSION OF SQUALL LINE HAS SLOWED AND EXTENDS WWD FROM WRN FL
   PANHANDLE TO SERN LA.  WITH APPROACH OF THE S/W FROM
   TX...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD BACK ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE
   INTO SRN MS AND SRN AL DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE SHEAR REMAINS
   STRONG...THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED RESULTING IN JUST A
   MARGINAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.
   
   THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS
   AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE SRN
   GA INTO ERN FL PANHANDLE WHERE SHEAR REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE AND RICH
   GULF AIR MASS IS SPREADING INLAND.
   
   ..HALES/GUYER.. 04/30/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z