Apr-30-2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Sat Apr 30 16:12:42 UTC 2005
|
|||||||||||
SPC AC 301608 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005 VALID 301630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE DAB 50 N PIE ...CONT... 45 E 7R4 60 SW SEM 40 SE MCN 30 SSE CLT 10 N LYH 15 SSW NHK 10 ESE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VRB 50 SSE FMY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MFE 30 ESE HDO 15 N AUS 50 W LFK 30 NNW POE 20 NE HEZ 20 WNW BHM 40 NE TYS 35 SSE LBE 20 SE BFD 35 SSW UCA 20 ENE PSF BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE PDT 15 SW BOI 50 WNW BPI 45 SW LAR 20 SSE DEN 20 ENE LHX 20 WNW LBL 55 E DHT 25 S DHT 50 SSE RTN 45 ESE DRO 15 WNW U17 65 NE TPH 30 WSW MHS 25 E CEC 25 SSW SLE 35 NE PDX 30 ESE PDT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ERN U.S. WITH CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINING OVER NRN ONTARIO. FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH IN STG WLYS CURRENTLY ERN TX WILL GRADUALLY DE AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS GULF COAST STATES TO OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. ACTIVE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS SWWD TO CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE SHEAR IS STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...THE DIMINISHING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL TEMPER SOMEWHAT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... REF MCD 724 SQUALL LINE HAS MOSTLY WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW SEVERE LEVELS WRN CAROLINAS ATTM...BUT WITH HEATING AND ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION WIND DAMAGE THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS LINE CONTINUES EWD. WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF-SHORE AROUND 00Z ENDING SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA. ...GULF COAST... WRN EXTENSION OF SQUALL LINE HAS SLOWED AND EXTENDS WWD FROM WRN FL PANHANDLE TO SERN LA. WITH APPROACH OF THE S/W FROM TX...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD BACK ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO SRN MS AND SRN AL DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG...THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED RESULTING IN JUST A MARGINAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE SRN GA INTO ERN FL PANHANDLE WHERE SHEAR REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE AND RICH GULF AIR MASS IS SPREADING INLAND. ..HALES/GUYER.. 04/30/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |