May- 3-2005 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 3 05:22:12 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050503 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050503 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050503 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050503 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 030519
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1219 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N PIE DAB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 35 WSW SOW
   45 ENE DRA 35 WNW U31 65 ESE 4LW 50 NNE 4LW 30 ESE RDM 50 E DLS 35
   ESE EPH 30 NNW 63S.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA 25 NNW HLN
   35 NE JAC 50 SSE LND 10 NW LAR 40 ESE CYS 15 NE AKO 35 W GLD 15 SE
   LAA 40 ENE RTN 45 WNW CVS 35 NE HOB 50 NW ABI 25 SSW BWD 25 N SAT 15
   N NIR 25 NE CRP.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE NATION WILL DEAMPLIFY
   DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...LEAVING A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME
   ACROSS THE NATION.  AT THE SURFACE...LARGE ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE
   TO ADVECT A COOL CP AIR MASS INTO MUCH OF THE ERN-TWO THIRDS OF THE
   COUNTRY...PRECLUDING ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. 
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN FL...
   A FEW TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL TUESDAY.  A FRONT WAS
   SITUATED ACROSS THE KEYS WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS FLOWING NWD
   AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE MOVING EWD FROM THE YUCATAN
   CHANNEL.  TSTMS...NOW OVER THE SERN GULF...WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
    DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUESDAY.  ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES/SEABREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
   GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT/FLOW...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS
   ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...RIO GRANDE VLY INTO W TX...
   00Z H85 CHART SHOWED A SECONDARY SURGE OF CP AIR MASS HEADED SWD
   THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS.  THIS SURGE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE COOL
   ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WWD BEYOND THE RIO GRANDE VLY TO ALONG THE NERN
   MEXICAN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.  APPROACH OF THE WEAK SRN ROCKIES UPPER
   TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ATOP THE COLD DOME IN
   PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS W TX SEWD TO THE RIO GRANDE VLY. 
   SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER...IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE COOL LAPSE
   RATE ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..RACY/LEVIT.. 05/03/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z