May- 3-2005 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Tue May 3 05:22:12 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 030519 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N PIE DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 35 WSW SOW 45 ENE DRA 35 WNW U31 65 ESE 4LW 50 NNE 4LW 30 ESE RDM 50 E DLS 35 ESE EPH 30 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA 25 NNW HLN 35 NE JAC 50 SSE LND 10 NW LAR 40 ESE CYS 15 NE AKO 35 W GLD 15 SE LAA 40 ENE RTN 45 WNW CVS 35 NE HOB 50 NW ABI 25 SSW BWD 25 N SAT 15 N NIR 25 NE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE NATION WILL DEAMPLIFY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...LEAVING A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NATION. AT THE SURFACE...LARGE ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A COOL CP AIR MASS INTO MUCH OF THE ERN-TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...PRECLUDING ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... A FEW TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL TUESDAY. A FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE KEYS WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS FLOWING NWD AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE MOVING EWD FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. TSTMS...NOW OVER THE SERN GULF...WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY PART OF TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES/SEABREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT/FLOW...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ...RIO GRANDE VLY INTO W TX... 00Z H85 CHART SHOWED A SECONDARY SURGE OF CP AIR MASS HEADED SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. THIS SURGE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE COOL ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WWD BEYOND THE RIO GRANDE VLY TO ALONG THE NERN MEXICAN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. APPROACH OF THE WEAK SRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ATOP THE COLD DOME IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS W TX SEWD TO THE RIO GRANDE VLY. SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER...IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE COOL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ..RACY/LEVIT.. 05/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |