May- 3-2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Tue May 3 15:44:07 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 031541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2005 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW CTY 20 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 35 WSW SOW 60 SSE ELY 50 SE OWY 70 NNW WMC 25 WNW SVE 40 WSW MHS 15 NNE MFR 35 ESE EPH 30 NNW 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE CTB 35 ENE GTF 45 E RIW 35 NE LAR 30 SSW MHN 20 ESE BBW 25 S HSI 40 WSW HLC 45 SSW GLD 50 E TAD DHT 35 WNW ADM 45 SE DAL 35 NW HOU 10 ESE PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE SVR THREAT ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION TODAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SCT CONVECTION WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OVER CENTRAL/WRN NM. LATER TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE ABOVE STABLE SFC LAYER...ISOLATED/SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER TX. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NRN GREAT BASIN WEST WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST UNDERNEATH MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. THE ONLY SVR THREAT TODAY WILL EXIST SOUTH OF A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NWD THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SEA BREEZE/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID IN SCT CONVECTION WITH AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL THREAT OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL. ...SRN/CENTRAL FL... ANALYSIS OF UPPER AIR AND SOUNDING DATA FROM 02/12Z AND 03/12Z SHOWS MODEST COOLING FROM 750 MB UP TO 200 MB OVER CENTRAL/SRN FL. AS A RESULT...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEPER.../AROUND 7.0 DEG C/KM/. IN ADDITION STRONGER FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM 500 TO 200 MB TODAY THAN OCCURRED YESTERDAY THUS...STORM TOP VENTING IN THE UPPER LVLS AND GREATER PARCEL ACCELERATION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR. LITTLE CINH EXISTS ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...AND GIVEN FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND MID LEVEL ACCAS SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...SCT STRONG/ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FL...BUT MARGINAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. THE MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR FOR A GREATER SVR THREAT /SLT RISK/ WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK 0-6 KM LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 25-30 KTS...COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK INVERSION IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER NOTED ON THE 12Z MFL AND TBW SOUNDINGS. ...WRN/CENTRAL NM... RECENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BASED ON A SFC PARCEL OF 60/38 AT ABQ. AMPLE SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OVER THE AREA. ..CROSBIE/HALES.. 05/03/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |