Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 081943
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005
   
   VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
   SPW 45 NNE OMA 40 ESE OFK 20 NW YKN 25 NNE HON 10 E ABR 30 ENE JMS
   30 NW TVF 30 E TVF 30 SE AXN 30 NNE SPW.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
   ELO 55 N EAU 30 N IRK 30 ENE SZL 10 E LIT 25 WSW MLU 20 SSW POE 15
   SE BPT ...CONT... 40 SE P07 30 ESE CDS 35 ENE GAG 15 ENE HSI 45 WSW
   YKN 25 ESE 9V9 25 WNW 9V9 PHP 55 NNW PHP 40 NE REJ 65 N DVL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ESE ANJ 50 NE MKG
   10 WNW FWA 35 WNW JKL 15 ENE CSV 25 ENE HSV 55 SE GWO 40 NE MCB 45
   SE HUM ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 35 NE FST 20 ENE HOB 30 WNW LBB 45 E
   AMA 25 WNW GAG 20 N LBL TAD 50 ENE DRO 25 ENE U28 35 WSW PUC 30 W
   U24 40 SSE ELY 40 ENE TPH 15 NE BIH 15 ESE FAT 35 W FAT 20 WSW SJC
   ...CONT... 45 NNW FCA 35 WSW GTF 15 NE LVM 25 ESE COD 35 SSW CPR 10
   SSE CYS 10 SE SNY 35 S REJ 35 ESE SDY 60 NNE ISN.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN ND/ERN SD/WRN MN INTO NERN NEB AND NWRN
   IA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
   PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SWD INTO TX...
   
   ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SWD INTO MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
   EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATED OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER
   CNTRL SD WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM W OF ABR AND MHE SWWD INTO
   S-CNTRL NEB AND FINALLY INTO NWRN KS. SUBTLE MOISTURE/CLOUD
   DISCONTINUITY WAS ALSO IDENTIFIED FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT
   NE OF ABR SEWD ACROSS W-CNTRL MN TO S OF MSP. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY
   DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND NE OF SURFACE
   LOW OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL SD...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
   SEWD ALONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z ABR AND OAX SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   WITH STRONGEST CAPPING CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN NEB. CONTINUED
   BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND INTO WRN MN/IA
   WHERE MLCAPES COULD APPROACH 2500 J/KG.
   
   MODESTLY STRONG SWLY...MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KTS LIFTING NEWD
   AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE
   HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT CAN
   REMAIN MORE DISCRETE. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A
   LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS WITH A GREATER DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING
   EWD INTO MN/IA TONIGHT.
   
   ...KS/OK INTO W-CNTRL/NRN TX...
   CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DRYLINE FROM INTERSECTION WITH
   COLD FRONT NW OF ICT SWWD INTO SWRN OK NEAR LTS AND INTO W-CNTRL TX
   W OF SJT. TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG SRN PORTION OF
   DRYLINE OVER W-CNTRL/NWRN TX WHERE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS ERODED
   CAP. INSOLATION IN WAKE OF THICKER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
   SHIFTING TO THE E HAVE ALLOWED AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY E OF DRYLINE TO
   BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. ZONE OF
   IMPLIED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SRN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
   N-CNTRL OK INTO W-CNTRL TX SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   FROM CURRENT STORMS NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL OK. FARTHER
   N...IT APPEARS THAT SRN FRINGE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH HAS STARTED TO
   INITIATE TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OVER N-CNTRL INTO CNTRL KS.
   
   INSPECTION OF REGIONAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL
   SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL /I.E. 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS OF 25-30 KTS/ FOR
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR
   TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT APPEARS PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE
   MULTICELLULAR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.
   
   ...SRN/SERN TX...
   STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON
   ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM N OF COT TO SW OF HOU. AIR MASS
   ALONG AND S OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. AXIS OF
   LOCALLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS IS RESULTING
   IN 40-50 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH ENVIRONMENT QUITE SUPPORTIVE
   OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
   ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY SAG SWD INTO PORTIONS OF DEEP S TX
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   
   
   ...ERN ORE/WA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ...
   TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN ORE INTO
   ID THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND IN LEFT EXIT
   REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ONTO THE NRN CA COAST. STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT
   A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
   WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/08/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z